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Belarus Wind Power Market Outlook 2018 - 2027

Belarus Wind Power Market: Outlook 2018÷2027 - Single User

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Wind Power Market in Belarus is expected to grow in the period 2018 - 2027. New feed-in tariffs for wind energy entered into force in 2015 ...

Update: November, 2018
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 137
Report production №:
RMWIN3502018159
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • Belarus, a landlocked, generally flat country (the average elevation is 162 meters above sea level) without natural borders, occupies an area of 207,600 km2, or slightly smaller than the United Kingdom or the state of Kansas. Its neighbors are Russia to the east and northeast, Latvia to the north, Lithuania to the northwest, Poland to the west, and Ukraine to the south. Its extension from north to south is 560 km, from west to east is 650 km. The population of Belarus was 9.51 million and the current gross domestic product (GDP) was $47.43 billion as of 2016.

    Belarus wind power market value, which was USD XXX million in 2017, is expected to grow to USD XXX million in 2018, at a CAGR of XXX percent. Renewable energy sources (RES) account for 5.7 percent of the total fuel and energy consumption in Belarus in 2016. The figure is projected to reach XXX percent by 2018. As a net energy importer, the national energy policy of Belarus is focused on maintaining energy security and stability in the country and reducing energy import dependency through increased energy efficiency measures. A new “Concept of Energy Security” came into force on 1 January 2016 and defines the long-term view on the country’s energy sector development. The main priority of Belarus energy policy is to increase energy efficiency and to develop local sources of energy: 80 % of the energy consumption is currently imported.

    The potential of wind energy is estimated to equal 1.9 – 2.0 Mtoe per year. The technical potential of energy that could be generated by wind farms is estimated at 220 billion kWh. A survey has been done by the government resulted in 1,840 sites fit for placing wind-powered generators with the potential energy output of over 1,600 MW.

    Belarus is ranked among top 5 countries by attractiveness for wind energy investments among CIS countries by Renewable Market Watch in their yearly updated "Attractiveness index for wind energy investments in CIS countries in 2018". The country’s main strategy to meet the growing need of power is to reduce the energy dependency by increasing the energy efficiency, increased use of renewable resources, nuclear sources, and connecting to the European power infrastructure and power infrastructure of Commonwealth Independent States (CIS).

    Current cumulative installed wind power capacity in the country is XXX MW at the end of 2017 and number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2018 and next years. First wind power plants have been launched into commercial operation between 2012 and 2017, whilst pipeline of over 200 MW wind power projects are progressing in different stages of permitting process for grid connection by 2020. Feed-in tariff for wind energy has been updated in Belarus in May 2015 combined with 20 years PPA period is expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind energy market in Belarus.

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 110 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Belarus wind power market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2016 and 2017 were challenging years for world wind energy industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2018 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Wind resource potential in Belarus
    • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2017 and forecasts until 2027
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 45 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Belarus wind power market development 2007 ÷ 2027
    • Development scenario of Belarus wind power sector until 2027
    • Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Belarus
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind power projects
    • Attractiveness index for wind power investments in Belarus and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Belarus legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Belarus
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind power sector in Belarus
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    9
    1.1    Research Methodology    9
    1.2    Limitations    10
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    11
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus    11
    2.2    Belarus Wind Resource Potential    11
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Belarus    11
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    11
    2.5    Market Forecast Summary    12
    3    BELARUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    13
    3.1    Basic Country Data    13
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    16
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    17
    3.4    Taxes    20
    3.4.1    VAT    21
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    22
    3.4.3    Excise Duty    22
    4    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET    23
    4.1    General Electricity Market information    23
    4.2    Wind Power in Energy Sector    29
    4.3    Single Electricity Market of European Union (EU)    34
    4.4    CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM)    36
    4.5    Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union    36
    5    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) WIND POWER MARKET    37
    5.1    Market Overview    37
    5.2    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    38
    5.3    Annual Installed New Wind Power Capacity    39
    5.4    Future Development Trends    40
    6    BELARUS POWER MARKET    42
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    42
    6.2    Electricity Consumption and Generation    44
    6.3    Electricity Imports and Exports    46
    6.4    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    47
    6.5    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    48
    7    BELARUS WIND POWER MARKET    50
    7.1    Why Invest in Wind Power in Belarus?    50
    7.2    Belarus Wind Resource Potential    51
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    52
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Belarus    52
    7.5    Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus    53
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    54
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    54
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market    55
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market    55
    7.10    Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    56
    7.11    Annual New Installed Wind Power Capacity    57
    7.12    Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Belarus in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    58
    7.13    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Belarus    59
    7.14    Key Wind Power Projects in Belarus    60
    7.15    Mergers and Acquisitions    60
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN BELARUS. SWOT ANALYSIS    61
    8.1    Market Drivers    61
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    61
    8.3    Market Constraints    62
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    62
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    63
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN BELARUS    66
    9.1    Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Belarus    66
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, Discount rate, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    70
    10    EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    75
    10.1    RES Regulations and EU Directives    75
    10.1.1    Precedent EU regulations    75
    10.2    Renewable energy mandatory targets for CEE & SEE countries set out by the EU    76
    10.2.1    Interim targets set out by the EU    76
    10.2.2    National support schemes flexibility allowed by the EU and progress reporting    77
    10.2.3    Energy Community (EC) Treaty    78
    10.3    EU 2030 framework for climate and energy policies    79
    10.3.1    Targets    82
    10.3.2    Coherence of policy instruments    84
    10.3.3    Fostering the competitiveness of the EU economy    85
    10.4    RES strategy for CIS countries developed by UN ECE    86
    10.4.1    Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training    87
    10.5    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets For CIS Countries    87
    11    BELARUS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    89
    11.1    Main Laws and Regulations    89
    11.2    Republican Energy Saving Program 2016 – 2020    90
    11.3    Support Scheme. Feed-in Tariff    91
    11.4    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    91
    11.4.1    Zoning Plans Procedure    92
    11.4.2    Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure    93
    11.5    Environmental Related Authorizations    93
    11.5.1    Natura 2000 Network    93
    11.5.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    95
    11.6    Energy Law Authorizations    96
    11.6.1    Grid Interconnection    96
    11.6.2    Power Off-Take/Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)    97
    11.6.3    Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    97
    11.7    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    97
    12    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BELARUS    98
    12.1    Government Stakeholders    98
    12.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    101
    12.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    101
    13    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    104
    14    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    106
    15    REFERENCES    108
    16    DISCLAIMER    110
    APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTTRIES AND BELARUS    111
    APPENDIX II. CALCULATIONS DESCRIPTION TO FINANCIAL MODEL    112

  • Map 1: Where is Belarus on the CIS Countries Map    13
    Map 2: Belarus Road Network    14
    Map 3: Belarus Administrative Regions Map    15
    Map 4: Electricity Grid Map of Belarus (750-330-220-110 kV)    44
    Map 5: Wind Resource Map of Belarus    51
    Map 6: Wind Resource Map of Belarus    52
    MAP 7: Belarus Natura 2000 Areas Map    94
    MAP 8: Mean Wind Speed in CIS Countries at 80 m.a.g.l.    111
    Map 9: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l.    112


    Chart 1: Belarus Real GDP Growth (in %) for the Period 2000 ÷ 2027 (including forecast)    18
    Chart 2: Belarus GDP Growth Compared to EU-28 for the Period 2002 ÷ 2027 (including forecast)    19
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries     21
    Chart 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States   24
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2016 (in %)    26
    Chart 6: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries, 2017 (in %)   27
    Chart 7: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2008 – 2018; Renewable Market Watch     28
    Chart 8: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW)    28
    Chart 9: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2017 (MW)    30
    Chart 10: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2017 in MW    31
    Chart 11: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW)    32
    Chart 12: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2017 in the EU    33
    Chart 13: Net Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 28 for 2017 (GW)    33
    Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    38
    Chart 15: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions €) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    39
    Chart 16: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    40
    Chart 17: Belarus Power Market Structure    42
    Chart 18: Structure of the Power Market in Belarus    43
    Chart 19: Share of RES Electricity (incl. Large Hydro) from Total Installed Power Capacity in Belarus    45
    Chart 20: Belarus Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in GWh) 2000 ÷ 2017    46
    Chart 21: Tariff Regulation in Power Sector of Belarus    47
    Chart 22: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    56
    Chart 23: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in Millions €) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    57
    Chart 24: Annual New Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast    58
    Chart 25: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Belarus in USD cents/KWh;     59
    Chart 26: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus    73
    Chart 27: Corporate Governance Structure of Belenergo    102


    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    48
    Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries    50
    Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Belarus for 2018 ÷ 2027 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2018 Update)     58
    Table 4: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Wind Power Projects in Belarus    60
    Table 5: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus    72
    Table 6: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    72
    Table 7: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus    73
    Table 8: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    73
    Table 9: Feed-in-tariffs (FiT) for Electricity from Wind Energy Sources (RES) in Belarus for Wind Power Plants    91
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