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Belarus Wind Power Market Outlook 2020 - 2030

Belarus Wind Power Market: Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

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Wind Power Market in Belarus is expected to grow in the period 2020 - 2030. New feed-in tariffs for wind energy entered into force in 2015 ...

Update: March, 2020
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 137
Report production №:
RMWIN3502020159
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • Belarus, a landlocked, generally flat country (the average elevation is 162 meters above sea level) without natural borders, occupies an area of 207,600 km2, or slightly smaller than the United Kingdom or the state of Kansas. Its neighbors are Russia to the east and northeast, Latvia to the north, Lithuania to the northwest, Poland to the west, and Ukraine to the south. Its extension from north to south is 560 km, from west to east is 650 km. The population of Belarus was 9.51 million and the current gross domestic product (GDP) was $59.6 billion as of 2018.

    Belarus wind power market value, which was USD XXX million in 2019, is expected to grow to USD XXX million in 2020, at a CAGR of XXX percent. Renewable energy sources (RES) account for less than XXX percent of the total fuel and energy consumption in Belarus in 2019. The figure is projected to reach XXX percent by 2020. As a net energy importer, the national energy policy of Belarus is focused on maintaining energy security and stability in the country and reducing energy import dependency through increased energy efficiency measures. A new “Concept of Energy Security” came into force on 1 January 2016 and defines the long-term view on the country’s energy sector development. The main priority of Belarus energy policy is to increase energy efficiency and to develop local sources of energy: 80 % of the energy consumption is currently imported.

    The potential of wind energy is estimated to equal 1.9 – 2.0 Mtoe per year. The technical potential of energy that could be generated by wind farms is estimated at 220 billion kWh. A survey has been done by the government resulted in 1,840 sites fit for placing wind-powered generators with the potential energy output of over 1,600 MW.

    Belarus is ranked among top 5 countries by attractiveness for wind energy investments among CIS countries by Renewable Market Watch in their yearly updated "Attractiveness index for wind energy investments in CIS countries in 2020". The country’s main strategy to meet the growing need of power is to reduce the energy dependency by increasing the energy efficiency, increased use of renewable resources, nuclear sources, and connecting to the European power infrastructure and power infrastructure of Commonwealth Independent States (CIS).

    Current cumulative installed wind power capacity in the country is XXX MW at the end of 2019 and number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2020 and next years. First wind power plants have been launched into commercial operation between 2012 and 2018, whilst pipeline of over 200 MW wind power projects are progressing in different stages of permitting process for grid connection by 2020. Feed-in tariff for wind energy has been updated in Belarus in May 2015 combined with 20 years PPA period is expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind energy market in Belarus.

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 110 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Belarus wind power market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for world wind energy industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Wind resource potential in Belarus
    • Historical market data provided from 2009 to 2019 and forecasts until 2030
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 45 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Belarus wind power market development 2010 ÷ 2030
    • Development scenario of Belarus wind power sector until 2030
    • Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Belarus
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind power projects
    • Attractiveness index for wind power investments in Belarus and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Belarus legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Belarus
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind power sector in Belarus
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 7
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 8
    1.1 Research Methodology 8
    1.2 Limitations 9
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus 10
    2.2 Belarus Wind Resource Potential 10
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 11
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Belarus 11
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 11
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus 12
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 12
    3 BELARUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 13
    3.1 Basic Country Data 13
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 17
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 17
    3.4 Taxes 20
    3.4.1 VAT 21
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 21
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 22
    4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 23
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 23
    4.2 Wind Power in the Energy Sector 29
    4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 32
    4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
    4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
    5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) WIND POWER MARKET 37
    5.1 Market Overview 37
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 38
    5.3 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 40
    5.4 Future Development Trends 40
    6 BELARUS POWER MARKET 42
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
    7 BELARUS WIND POWER MARKET 52
    7.1 Why Invest in Wind Power in Belarus? 52
    7.2 Belarus Wind Resource Potential 53
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 54
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Belarus 55
    7.5 Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus 56
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 57
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market 59
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market 60
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 62
    7.11 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 64
    7.12 Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Belarus in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 64
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Belarus 65
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Belarus 66
    7.15 Key Wind Power Projects in Belarus Under Development 67
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND MARKET IN BELARUS. SWOT ANALYSIS 71
    8.1 Market Drivers 71
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 71
    8.3 Market Constraints 72
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 72
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 73
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND MARKET IN BELARUS 77
    9.1 Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Belarus 77
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 82
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 87
    10.1 Wind Technology Overview 87
    10.2 Technology Trends 88
    11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 90
    12 BELARUS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 92
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 92
    12.2 Support Schemes 93
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 93
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus in 2020 94
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Wind Power Plants in Belarus 97
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 98
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 98
    12.7.1 Emerald Network and Environment Protected Areas 99
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 100
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 100
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 100
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 101
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 104
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 105
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 105
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 106
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BELARUS 107
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 107
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 111
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 112
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 120
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 122
    16 REFERENCES 124
    17 DISCLAIMER 126
    APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND BELARUS 127

  • Map 1: Where is Belarus on the European Map 13
    Map 2: Belarus Road Network 14
    Map 3: Belarus Administrative Regions Map 16
    Map 4: Belarus Electricity Grids Network 43
    Map 5: Belarus Wind Resource Map at 80 m.a.g.l. 53
    MAP 6: Belarus Emerald Network of Environment Protected Areas Map 99
    MAP 7: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l. 127
    Map 8: European Wind Atlas 128
    Map 9: Unrestricted technical potential for onshore wind energy in the EU countries up to 2030, based on estimated 80 m.a.g.l average wind speeds (incl. Belarus) 129


    Chart 1: Belarus Real GDP Growth for the Period 2020 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 18
    Chart 2: Belarus GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2020 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries 21
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) AND Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2019 24
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 26
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) (€/MWh): 2009 – 2019; Renewable Market WatchTM 27
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 28
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 29
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Europe in 2019 30
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 31
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2009 – 2019 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 32
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2009 – 2019 37
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
    Chart 16: Belarus Power Market Structure 42
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Belarus in 2019 45
    Chart 18: Belarus Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 46
    Chart 19: Belarus Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 47
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Belarus 2020 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
    Chart 21: Belarus Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in Belarus 2009 – 2019 59
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in Millions EUR) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2020 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Belarus by 2030 (in €) 66
    Chart 27: Belarusian SEFF Structure 78
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 85
    Chart 29: Wind Turbine Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2009 ÷ 2019 88
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Belarus in 2019 112


    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Belarus 52
    Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Projects in Belarus for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 65
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Belarus in 2020 66
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Wind Projects in Belarus 68
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 83
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 83
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 84
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 85
    Table 10: Wind Turbine Price Trend in 2020 89
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