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Kazakhstan Photovoltaic Market: Outlook 2016÷2025 - Single User

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Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2016 - 2025. New feed-in tariffs for solar power entered into force in 2014 ...

Update: June, 2017
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 138
Report production №:
RMWIN3492016157
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in CIS region with clear rules, feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2017 and next years.

    First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commerical operation, whilst pipeline of over 700 MW solar projects pipeline are progressing in different stages of permitting process. Feed-in tariff for solar energy has been approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014 combined with 15 years PPA period and announced auction (tender) procedure are expected to pave the way for fast further growth of solar PV market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects.

    You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2015 and 2016 were challenging years for world photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2017 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Solar resource potential in Kazakhstan
    • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
    • Overview of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 1990 ÷ 2025
    • Development scenario of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2025
    • Major active and upcoming photovoltaic plants in Kazakhstan
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Kazakhstan legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector in Kazakhstan
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    10
    1.1    Research Methodology    10
    1.2    Limitations    11
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    12
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan    12
    2.2    Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential    12
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Kazakhstan    13
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    14
    2.5    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan    14
    2.6    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan    14
    2.7    Market Forecast Summary    15
    3    KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    17
    3.1    Basic Country Data    17
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    20
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    22
    3.4    Taxes    26
    3.4.1    VAT    27
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    27
    4    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET    28
    4.1    General Electricity Market information    28
    4.2    Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector    35
    4.3    Single Electricity Market of European Union    38
    4.4    CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM)    41
    4.5    Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union    41
    5    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)  PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    42
    5.1    Market Overview    42
    5.2    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    43
    5.3    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    44
    5.4    Future Development Trends    45
    6    KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET    46
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    46
    6.2    Electricity Consumption and Generation    49
    6.3    Electricity Imports and Exports    51
    6.4    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    53
    6.5    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    54
    7    KAZAKHSTAN PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    57
    7.1    Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan?    57
    7.2    Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential    58
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    59
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Kazakhstan    60
    7.5    Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan    60
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    64
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    64
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    65
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    66
    7.10    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    67
    7.11    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    68
    7.12    Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    70
    7.13    Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan    70
    7.14    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan    71
    7.15    Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development    71
    7.16    Mergers and Acquisitions    76
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS    78
    8.1    Market Drivers    78
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    78
    8.3    Market Constraints    78
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    78
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    79
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN    82
    9.1    Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan    82
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    87
    10    TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS    90
    10.1    Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview    90
    10.2    Technology Trends    91
    11    CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    94
    11.1    RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries    94
    11.1.1    Precedent Regulations    94
    11.1.2    EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies    95
    11.1.3    EU Energy Roadmap 2050    99
    11.2    RES Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE    101
    11.2.1    Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training    102
    11.3    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries    103
    12    KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    105
    12.1    Main Laws and Regulations    105
    12.2    Support Schemes    106
    12.3    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan    107
    12.4    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants    108
    12.5    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    109
    12.6    Environmental Related Authorizations    109
    12.6.1    Environment Protected Areas    110
    12.6.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    111
    12.7    Energy Law Authorizations    112
    12.7.1    Power Generation Licensing    112
    12.7.2    Grid Interconnection and quota limitations by 2020    114
    12.7.3    Power Off-Take    114
    12.7.4    Feed-in tariff (FIT)    114
    12.7.5    RES Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    116
    12.8    Additional Incentives for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan    116
    12.9    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    116
    13    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN    117
    13.1    Government Stakeholders    117
    13.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    119
    13.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    119
    14    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    130
    15    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    133
    16    REFERENCES    135
    17    DISCLAIMER    138
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND KAZAKHSTAN    139

  • Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the CIS Countries Map    16
    MAP 2: Major Transport Corridors Passing Through Kazakhstan    17
    MAP 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map    19
    MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States    28
    MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States, ENTSO-E    29
    Map 6: Electricity Grid Map of Kazakhstan (1150-500-220-110 kV), KEGOC    49
    Map 7: Solar Resource Map of Kazakhstan    58
    MAP 8: Environment Protected Areas in Kazakhstan    111
    Map 9: Districts covered by East Kazakhstan Regional Energy Company JSC (EK REC)    127
    MAP 10: Districts covered by PAVLODARENERGO/Central-Asian Electric Power Corporation (CAEPCO)    128
    Map 11: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS countries    139
    Map 12: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS Countries 140

    Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    24
    Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    25
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)     26
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2016    29
    Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2016 (in %), EuroStat    31
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016    32
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E    33
    Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope, SolarPower Europe    34
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; SolarPower Europe    35
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope    36
    Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindEurope    36
    Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindEurope    37
    Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR)  Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)  2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)  2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    44
    Chart 17: Existing and Planned High Voltage Interconnection Power Lines of Kazakhstan with Neighbor Countries    46
    Chart 18: Structure of the Existing Wholesale Electricity Power Market in Kazakhstan    46
    Chart 19: Structure of Kazakhstan Power Market    47
    Chart 20: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2016    49
    Chart 21: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016    50
    Chart 22: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016    50
    Chart 23: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast    51
    Chart 24: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2050 (in %)    54
    Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast     66
    Chart 26: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    67
    Chart 27: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    68
    Chart 28: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    68
    Chart 29: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan    70
    Chart 30: KAZSEFF Structure    82
    Chart 31: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan    88
    Chart 32: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2016 (BNEF, PV news, EU Commission – DG JRC, Roland Berger)    91
    Chart 33: Corporate Structure of KEGOC    119

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    52
    Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries    56
    Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     69
    Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan    70
    Table 6: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan    72
    Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan    87
    Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    87
    Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan    87
    Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    88
    Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in April 2017    92
    Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Kazakhstan    114