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Kazakhstan Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020 - 2030

Kazakhstan Solar Photovltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

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Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2020 - 2030. New feed-in tariffs for solar power entered into force in 2014 ...

Update: March, 2020
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 138
Report production №:
RMWIN3492020157
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2020 ÷ 2030. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in CIS region with clear rules, feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2020 and next years.

    First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commerical operation, whilst pipeline of over 700 MW solar projects pipeline are progressing in different stages of permitting process. Feed-in tariff for solar energy has been approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014 combined with 15 years PPA period auction (tender) procedure are expected to pave the way for fast further growth of solar PV market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects.

    You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan photovoltaic market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for world photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Solar resource potential in Kazakhstan
    • Historical market data provided from 2009 to 2019 and forecasts until 2030
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
    • Overview of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2010 ÷ 2030
    • Development scenario of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2030
    • Major active and upcoming photovoltaic plants in Kazakhstan
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Kazakhstan legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector in Kazakhstan
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 8
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
    1.1 Research Methodology 9
    1.2 Limitations 10
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 11
    2.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 11
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Kazakhstan 12
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan 13
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
    3 KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
    3.1 Basic Country Data 14
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
    3.4 Taxes 21
    3.4.1 VAT 22
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
    4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 24
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
    4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
    4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 33
    4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
    4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
    5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 37
    5.1 Market Overview 37
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 38
    5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 40
    5.4 Future Development Trends 40
    6 KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET 42
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
    7 KAZAKHSTAN PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 52
    7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan? 52
    7.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 53
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 55
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Kazakhstan 55
    7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 57
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 58
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 60
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 61
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 63
    7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 64
    7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 65
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan 66
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan 67
    7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development 68
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS 72
    8.1 Market Drivers 72
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 72
    8.3 Market Constraints 73
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 73
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 74
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN 78
    9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan 78
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 83
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 88
    10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 88
    10.2 Technology Trends 89
    11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 91
    12 KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 93
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 93
    12.2 Support Schemes 94
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 94
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan in 2020 95
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan 97
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 98
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 98
    12.7.1 Environment Protected Areas 99
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 100
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 100
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 100
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 101
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 104
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 105
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 105
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 106
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN 107
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 107
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 111
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 112
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 120
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 122
    16 REFERENCES 124
    17 DISCLAIMER 126
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND KAZAKHSTAN 127

  • Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the European Map 14
    Map 2: Kazakhstan Road Network 15
    Map 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map 17
    Map 4: Kazakhstan Electricity Grids Network 43
    Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 54
    MAP 6: Kazakhstan Environment Protected Areas Map 99
    MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 127
    Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 128
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 129

    Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
    Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 20
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 22
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2019 25
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 27
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 29
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 30
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 31
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 32
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2010 – 2020 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 33
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 – 2020 37
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
    Chart 16: Kazakhstan Power Market Structure 42
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2019 45
    Chart 18: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 46
    Chart 19: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 47
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
    Chart 21: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Kazakhstan 2009 – 2019 60
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 65
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Kazakhstan by 2030 (in €) 67
    Chart 27: Kazakhstani SEFF Structure 79
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 86
    Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2020 89
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Kazakhstan in 2019 112

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Kazakhstan 52
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 66
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan in 2020 67
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan 69
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 84
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 84
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 85
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 86
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2020 90
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