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Kazakhstan Wind Power Market Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

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Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2020 - 2030. New feed-in tariffs for wind power entered into force in 2014 ...

Update: March, 2020
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 137
Report production №:
RMWIN3492020158
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the wind power sector of the country for the period 2020 ÷ 2030. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s and green certificates announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in CIS region with clear rules and feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. Current cumulative installed wind capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2020 and next years. 

    First MW size wind power plants have been launched into commercial operation, whilst pipeline of over 1,300 MW (1.3 GW) wind projects pipeline are progressing in different stages of permitting process. Feed-in tariff for wind energy has been approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014 combined with 15 years PPA period and auction (tender) procedure are expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind power market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects.

    You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan wind power market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for world wind energy industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Wind resource potential in Kazakhstan
    • Historical market data provided from 2009 to 2019 and forecasts until 2030
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
    • Overview of Kazakhstan wind power market development 2010 ÷ 2030
    • Development scenario of Kazakhstan wind power sector until 2030
    • Major active and upcoming wind power plants (wind farms) in Kazakhstan
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind power projects
    • Attractiveness indices for wind energy investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Kazakhstan legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind power sector in Kazakhstan
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 7
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 8
    1.1 Research Methodology 8
    1.2 Limitations 9
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan 10
    2.2 Kazakhstan Wind Resource Potential 10
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 11
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Kazakhstan 11
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 11
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan 12
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 12
    3 KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 13
    3.1 Basic Country Data 13
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 17
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 17
    3.4 Taxes 20
    3.4.1 VAT 21
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 21
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 22
    4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 23
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 23
    4.2 Wind Power in the Energy Sector 29
    4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 32
    4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
    4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
    5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) WIND POWER MARKET 37
    5.1 Market Overview 37
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 38
    5.3 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 40
    5.4 Future Development Trends 40
    6 KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET 42
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
    7 KAZAKHSTAN WIND POWER MARKET 52
    7.1 Why Invest in Wind Power in Kazakhstan? 52
    7.2 Kazakhstan Wind Resource Potential 53
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 54
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 55
    7.5 Overview of Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan 56
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 57
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market 59
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market 60
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 62
    7.11 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 64
    7.12 Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 64
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Kazakhstan 65
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Kazakhstan 66
    7.15 Key Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development 67
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS 71
    8.1 Market Drivers 71
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 71
    8.3 Market Constraints 72
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 72
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 73
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN 77
    9.1 Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 77
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 82
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 87
    10.1 Wind Technology Overview 87
    10.2 Technology Trends 88
    11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 90
    12 KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 92
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 92
    12.2 Support Schemes 93
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 93
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan in 2020 94
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan 97
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 98
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 98
    12.7.1 Emerald Network and Environment Protected Areas 99
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 100
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 100
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation 100
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 101
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 104
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 105
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 105
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 106
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN 106
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 106
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 110
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 112
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 120
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 122
    16 REFERENCES 124
    17 DISCLAIMER 126
    APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND KAZAKHSTAN 127

  • Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the European Map 13
    Map 2: Kazakhstan Road Network 14
    Map 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map 16
    Map 4: Kazakhstan Electricity Grids Network 43
    Map 5: Kazakhstan Wind Resource Map at 80 m.a.g.l. 53
    MAP 6: Kazakhstan Emerald Network of Environment Protected Areas Map 99
    MAP 7: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l. 127
    Map 8: European Wind Atlas 128
    Map 9: Unrestricted technical potential for onshore wind energy in the EU countries up to 2030, based on estimated 80 m.a.g.l average wind speeds (incl. Kazakhstan) 129

    Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 18
    Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries 21
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) AND Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2019 24
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 26
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 27
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 28
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 29
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Europe in 2019 30
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 31
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2009 – 2019 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 32
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2009 – 2019 37
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
    Chart 16: Kazakhstan Power Market Structure 42
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2019 45
    Chart 18: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 46
    Chart 19: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 47
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
    Chart 21: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in Kazakhstan 2009 – 2019 59
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Kazakhstan by 2030 (in €) 66
    Chart 27: Kazakhstani SEFF Structure 78
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 85
    Chart 29: Wind Turbine Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2010 ÷ 2020 88
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Kazakhstan in 2019 112


    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Kazakhstan 52
    Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Projects in Kazakhstan for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 65
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Kazakhstan in 2020 66
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Wind Projects in Kazakhstan 68
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 83
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 83
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 84
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 85
    Table 10: Wind Turbine Price Trend in 2020 89
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