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Russia Photovoltaic Market: Outlook 2016÷2025 - Single User

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Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Russia is expected to grow in the period 2016 - 2025. Government plans of Russia include development of solar PV sector ...

Update: June, 2017
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 151
Report production №:
RMWIN3492016184
Delivery:
24 hours by e-mail

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Russian Federation represents a challenging investment opportunity in CIS region with state renewable energy support scheme. Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2017 and next years. First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commerical operation in 2014, 2015 and first half of 2016, whilst pipeline of over 1,500 MW (1.5 GW) solar projects are progressing in different stages of development process. Russia has launched at the end of September 2013 its first state support scheme for renewable energy with regulated capacity prices and 15 year PPA term, which is expected to enable further growth of solar PV market in Russian Federation.

    Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Dmitry Medvedev signed on July 28, 2015 very important regulatory document called "Decree № 1472-r". This document is fixing previous weak points from the Russian renewable energy law and is expected to create more comfortable and attractive business environment for local and international clean energy investors and particularly those in solar power plants in Russia.

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 145 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Russia solar PV market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2015 and 2016 were challenging years for world photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2017 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Solar resource potential in Russia
    • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2000 ÷ 2025
    • Development scenario of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2025
    • Major active and upcoming solar PV power plants in Russia
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational solar PV projects
    • Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Russia and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Russia legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Russian
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector in Russia
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    10
    1.1    Research Methodology    10
    1.2    Limitations    11
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    12
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia    12
    2.2    Russia Solar Resource Potential    13
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Russia    13
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    14
    2.5    Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia    14
    2.6    Market Forecast Summary    15
    3    RUSSIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    17
    3.1    Basic Country Data    17
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    20
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    22
    3.4    Taxes    25
    3.4.1    VAT    25
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    26
    4    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET    27
    4.1    General Electricity Market Information    27
    4.2    Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Energy Sector    33
    4.3    Single Electricity Market of European Union    38
    4.4    CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM)    40
    4.5    Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union    41
    5    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)  PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    42
    5.1    Market Overview    42
    5.2    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue    43
    5.3    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue    44
    5.4    Future Development Trends    45
    6    RUSSIA POWER MARKET    46
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    46
    6.2    Wholesale Power Market Structure    49
    6.2.1    Electricity Market    50
    6.2.2    Capacity Market    52
    6.3    Retail power market structure    54
    6.3.1    Retail Companies    55
    6.3.2    Electricity Producers that are not Participants of the Wholesale Market    56
    6.3.3    Contract Structure of Retail Market    56
    6.3.4    Pricing in the Retail Market    57
    6.4    Electricity Consumption and Generation    60
    6.5    Electricity Imports and Exports    62
    6.6    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    64
    6.7    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    65
    7    RUSSIA PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    68
    7.1    Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia?    68
    7.2    Russia Solar Resource Potential    69
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    71
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    72
    7.5    Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia    72
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    75
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    75
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    76
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    78
    7.10    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue    78
    7.11    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue    79
    7.12    Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    80
    7.13    Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia    81
    7.14    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia    81
    7.15    Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia Under Development    82
    7.16    Mergers and Acquisitions    86
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA. SWOT ANALYSIS    87
    8.1    Market Drivers    87
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    87
    8.3    Market Constraints    87
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    87
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    88
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA    91
    9.1    Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    91
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    95
    10    TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS    98
    10.1    Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Technology Overview    98
    10.2    Technology Trends    99
    11    CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    102
    11.1    RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries    102
    11.1.1    Precedent Regulations    102
    11.1.2    EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies    103
    11.1.3    EU Energy Roadmap 2050    107
    11.2    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE    109
    11.2.1    Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training    110
    11.3    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries    111
    12    RUSSIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    113
    12.1    Main Laws and Regulations    113
    12.2    Support Schemes    114
    12.2.1    Government Decree № 1839 „On approval of a package of measures to stimulate production of power by generating facilities operating on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES)“    114
    12.2.2    Federal Law No. 35-FZ on the Electric Power Industry    115
    12.3    Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia    115
    12.4    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    116
    12.5    Environmental Related Authorizations    116
    12.5.1    Environment Protected Areas    117
    12.5.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    118
    12.6    Energy Law Authorizations    119
    12.6.1    Power Generation Licensing    119
    12.6.2    Grid Interconnection and Quota Limitations    120
    12.6.3    Power Off-Take and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)    120
    12.6.4    Feed-in Tariff (FIT)    130
    12.6.5    Green Reneable Energy Sources (RES) Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    132
    12.7    Additional Incentives for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    132
    12.8    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    132
    13    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA    133
    13.1    Government Stakeholders    133
    13.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    134
    13.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    135
    14    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    144
    15    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    147
    16    REFERENCES    149
    17    DISCLAIMER    152
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND RUSSIA    153

  • Map 1: Where is Russia on the European Map    16
    MAP 2: Russia Road Network    17
    MAP 3: Russia Administrative Regions Map    18
    MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States  26
    MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States, ENTSO-E    27
    MAP 6: Existing and Planned High Voltage Power Lines of Russia and Interconnection with Neighbor Countries    45
    MAP 7: Electricity Grid Map of Russia    46
    MAP 8: Solar Resource Map of Russia   68
    MAP 9: Solar Resource Map of Far East Regions of Russia    70
    MAP 10: Environment Protected Areas in Russia    116
    Map 11: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS countries    152
    Map 12: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS Countries    153

    Chart 1: Russia Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    23
    Chart 2: Russia GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    24
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)     25
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2016    28
    Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2016 (in %), EuroStat    30
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016    31
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E    32
    Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Europe, SolarPower Europe    33
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; SolarPower Europe    34
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindPower Europe    35
    Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindPower Europe     36
    Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindPower Europe     36
    Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)  2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    44
    Chart 18: Structure of Russia Wholesale Power Market    47
    Chart 19: Share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Russia in 2016    60
    Chart 20: Russia Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016    61
    Chart 21: Russia Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016    61
    Chart 22: Russia Electricity Imports and Exports 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast    62
    Chart 23: Russia Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2030 (in %)    65
    Chart 24: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Russia (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast     77
    Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    78
    Chart 26: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    78
    Chart 27: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    79
    Chart 28: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia    80
    Chart 29: RUSEFF Structure    91
    Chart 30: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia    96
    Chart 31: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/MW) 1990 ÷ 2016    99
    Chart 32: Corporate Governance Structure of Russia Federal Grid Company    136
    Chart 33: Districts (Service Area) Covered by Russian Grids JSC    138
    Chart 34: Corporate Governance Structure of Inter Rao UES ОJSC    142

    Table 1: Russia Electricity Prices for Business and Households    63
    Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries    67
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     79
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia    80
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    82
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia    95
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    95
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia    96
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    97
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in April 2017    100
    Table 5: Limits on Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Installed Capacity in Russia 2014 ÷ 2024    122
    Table 6: Limits on Capital Costs for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 2014 ÷ 2024    124
    Table 7: Fixed Operating Costs for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    125
    Table 8: Local Content Procurement Requirements for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia    125
    Table 9: Minimum Capacity Factor for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Installations in Russia    129
    Table 11: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Russia    130