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Russia Wind Market: Outlook 2016÷2025 - Single User

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Wind Power Market in Russia is expected to grow in the period 2016 - 2025. Government plans of Russia include development of wind energy sector ...

Update: June, 2017
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 145
Report production №:
RMWIN3492016185
Delivery:
24 hours by e-mail

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the wind energy sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Russian Federation represents a challenging investment opportunity in CIS region with state renewable energy support scheme. Current cumulative installed wind power capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2016 and next years. First large scale wind power plants started construction at the end of 2015, whilst pipeline of over 1,570 MW (1.57 GW) wind projects are progressing in different stages of development process. Russia has launched at the end of September 2013 its first state support scheme for renewable energy with regulated capacity prices and 15 year PPA term, which is expected to enable further growth of wind energy market in Russian Federation.

    Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Dmitry Medvedev signed on July 28, 2015 very important regulatory document called "Decree № 1472-r". This document is fixing previous weak points from the Russian renewable energy law and is expected to create more comfortable and attractive business environment for local and international clean energy investors and particularly those in solar power plants in Russia.

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 145 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Russia wind power market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2015 and 2016 were challenging years for world wind energy industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2017 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Wind resource potential in Russia
    • Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Russia wind energy market development 2000 ÷ 2025
    • Development scenario of Russia wind power sector until 2025
    • Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Russia
    • Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind energy projects
    • Attractiveness indices for wind energy nvestments in Russia and CIS countries
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
    • Overview of Russia legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Russian wind energy sector
    • Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind energy sector in Russia
    • Investment potential and opportunities

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    10
    1.1    Research Methodology    10
    1.2    Limitations    11
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    12
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Russia    12
    2.2    Russia Wind Resource Potential    12
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Russia    13
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    14
    2.5    Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia    14
    2.6    Market Forecast Summary    14
    3    RUSSIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    16
    3.1    Basic Country Data    16
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    19
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    21
    3.4    Taxes    24
    3.4.1    VAT    24
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    25
    4    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET    26
    4.1    General Electricity Market Information    26
    4.2    Wind Power in Energy Sector    32
    4.3    Single Electricity Market of European Union    36
    4.4    CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM)    39
    4.5    Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union    39
    5    COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)  WIND POWER MARKET    40
    5.1    Market Overview    40
    5.2    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    41
    5.3    Annual Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    42
    5.4    Future Development Trends    43
    6    RUSSIA POWER MARKET    44
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    44
    6.2    Wholesale Power Market Structure    47
    6.2.1    Electricity Market    48
    6.2.2    Capacity Market    50
    6.3    Retail power market structure    52
    6.3.1    Retail Companies    53
    6.3.2    Electricity Producers that are not Participants of the Wholesale Market    54
    6.3.3    Contract Structure of Retail Market    54
    6.3.4    Pricing in the Retail Market    55
    6.4    Electricity Consumption and Generation    58
    6.5    Electricity Imports and Exports    60
    6.6    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    62
    6.7    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    63
    7    RUSSIA WIND POWER MARKET    66
    7.1    Why Invest in Wind Power in Russia?    66
    7.2    Russia Wind Resource Potential    67
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    69
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Russia    70
    7.5    Overview of Wind Power Market in Russia    70
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    73
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    73
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market    74
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market    76
    7.10    Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    76
    7.11    Annual Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue    77
    7.12    Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Russia in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    78
    7.13    Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Russia    79
    7.14    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Russia    79
    7.15    Key Wind Power Projects in Russia Under Development    79
    7.16    Mergers and Acquisitions    83
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA. SWOT ANALYSIS    84
    8.1    Market Drivers    84
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    84
    8.3    Market Constraints    84
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    84
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    85
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA    88
    9.1    Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Russia    88
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    92
    10    TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS    95
    10.1    Wind Power Technology Overview    95
    10.2    Technology Trends    96
    11    CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    99
    11.1    RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries    99
    11.1.1    Precedent Regulations    99
    11.1.2    EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies    100
    11.1.3    EU Energy Roadmap 2050    104
    11.2    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE    106
    11.2.1    Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training    107
    11.3    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries    108
    12    RUSSIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    110
    12.1    Main Laws and Regulations    110
    12.2    Support Schemes    111
    12.2.1    Government Decree № 1839 „On approval of a package of measures to stimulate production of power by generating facilities operating on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES)“    111
    12.2.2    Federal Law No. 35-FZ on the Electric Power Industry    112
    12.3    Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia    112
    12.4    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    113
    12.5    Environmental Related Authorizations    113
    12.5.1    Environment Protected Areas    114
    12.5.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    115
    12.6    Energy Law Authorizations    116
    12.6.1    Power Generation Licensing    116
    12.6.2    Grid Interconnection and Quota Limitations    117
    12.6.3    Power Off-Take and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)    117
    12.6.4    Feed-in Tariff (FIT)    127
    12.6.5    Green Reneable Energy Sources (RES) Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    128
    12.7    Additional Incentives for Wind Power Projects in Russia    129
    12.8    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    129
    13    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA    130
    13.1    Government Stakeholders    130
    13.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    132
    13.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    132
    14    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    141
    15    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    144
    16    REFERENCES    146
    17    DISCLAIMER    149
    APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND RUSSIA    150

  • Map 1: Where is Russia on the European Map    16
    MAP 2: Russia Road Network    17
    MAP 3: Russia Administrative Regions Map    18
    MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States 26
    MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States, ENTSO-E    27
    MAP 6: Existing and Planned High Voltage Power Lines of Russia and Interconnection with Neighbor Countries    44
    MAP 7: Electricity Grid Map of Russia    45
    MAP 8: Wind Resource Map of Russia at 80 m.a.g.l.    67
    MAP 9: Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Regions Wind Resource Map    69
    MAP 10: Environment Protected Areas in Russia    114
    Map 12: Mean Wind Speed in CIS Countries at 80 m.a.g.l., 3TIER Inc.    150
    Map 13: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l., 3TIER Inc.    151


    Chart 1: Russia Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    23
    Chart 2: Russia GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    24
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)     25
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2016    28
    Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2016 (in %), EuroStat    30
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016    31
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E    32
    Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope, SolarPower Europe    33
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; WindPower Europe    34
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindPower Europe    35
    Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindPower Europe     35
    Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindPower Europe     36
    Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    41
    Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS)  2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 18: Structure of Russia Wholesale Power Market    46
    Chart 19: Share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Russia in 2016    59
    Chart 20: Russia Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016    60
    Chart 21: Russia Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016    60
    Chart 22: Russia Electricity Imports and Exports 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast    61
    Chart 23: Russia Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2030 (in %)    64
    Chart 24: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power  Plants in Russia (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast     76
    Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power  Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    77
    Chart 26: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    77
    Chart 27: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    78
    Chart 28: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Russia    79
    Chart 29: RUSEFF Structure    89
    Chart 30: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia    94
    Chart 31: Wind Power System Price Evolution (€/MW) 1990 ÷ 2016    96
    Chart 32: Corporate Governance Structure of Russia Federal Grid Company    134
    Chart 33: Districts (Service Area) Covered by Russian Grids JSC    136
    Chart 34: Corporate Governance Structure of Inter Rao UES ОJSC    140

    Table 1: Russia Electricity Prices for Business and Households    62
    Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries    66
    Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Russia for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     78
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Russia    79
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Wind Power Projects in Russia    81
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia    92
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    93
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia    93
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Russia (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    94
    Table 10: Wind Turbine Prices in 2017    97
    Table 5: Limits on Wind Power Installed Capacity in Russia 2014 ÷ 2024    120
    Table 6: Limits on Capital Costs for Wind Power Projects in Russia 2014 ÷ 2024    122
    Table 7: Fixed Operating Costs for Wind Power Projects in Russia    123
    Table 8: Local Content Procurement Requirements for Wind Power Projects in Russia    123
    Table 9: Minimum Capacity Factor for Wind Power Installations in Russia    127
    Table 11: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Russia    128