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Bulgaria  Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020 - 2030

Bulgaria Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic (solar PV) sector of the country for the period 2020 - 2030...

Update: May, 2020
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 123
Report production №:
RMWIN3502012095
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • Bulgaria is situated in the South-Eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula. The country's population is 7.284 million people and its territory spans 110,912 sq.km. Bulgaria borders Greece and Turkey to the South, Macedonia and Serbia - to the West. The Danube River to the North is our natural border with Romania; the Black Sea is situated to the East. Bulgaria is in the center of a region, which is undergoing dynamic transition. Within 500 km of our capital city, Sofia (1.4 million people), a population of over 90 million lives in 9 countries that have recently embarked on their way to a market economy. This is a large market with a rapidly increasing purchasing power.

    In the last few years Bulgaria has been in the focus of the investors’ interest. The political stability and predictability due to the NATO membership and to the EU accession, the stable economic perspective and the growing credit rating of the country and its institutions were only some of the elements attracting the investors’ interest. External investors have been attracted by rapidly developing national industry, highly skilled workforce and significant new market.

    Development of operational solar PV power plants in Bulgaria started with very moderate steps in 2007, but progressed with fast paces after the second half of 2010. At the end of 2018 cumulative installed solar PV capacity in Bulgaria reached 1,036 MW. Several large scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects with capacity above 50 MW have been announced in Bulgaria after 2018 and these projects will be built between 2020 and 2023.

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Bulgarian photovoltaic market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment with, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Overview of the Bulgarian political and economic environment
    • Solar resource potential in Bulgaria
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Bulgaria (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Bulgarian photovoltaic market development 2010 ÷ 2030
    • Grid connected photovoltaic installations
    • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2020 ÷ 2030
    • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Romanian legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
    • Key companies and competitive landscape in photovoltaic sector
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 8
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
    1.1 Research Methodology 9
    1.2 Forecast Software and Methodology 13
    1.2 Limitations 13
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Bulgaria 14
    2.2 Bulgaria Solar Resource Potential 14
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 15
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Bulgaria 15
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 15
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Bulgaria 16
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 16
    3 BULGARIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
    3.1 Basic Country Data 17
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 21
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 21
    3.4 Taxes 24
    3.4.1 VAT 25
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 25
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 26
    4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 27
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 27
    4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 33
    4.3 Single Electricity Market 36
    5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 39
    5.1 Market Overview 39
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 40
    5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 42
    5.4 Future Development Trends 42
    6 BULGARIA POWER MARKET 44
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 44
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 46
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 50
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 51
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 52
    7 BULGARIA PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 54
    7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Bulgaria? 54
    7.2 Bulgaria Solar Resource Potential 55
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 56
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Bulgaria 57
    7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Bulgaria 58
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 59
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 60
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 61
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 62
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 64
    7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 66
    7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 66
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Bulgaria 67
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Bulgaria 68
    7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria Under Development 69
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 72
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BULGARIA. SWOT ANALYSIS 73
    8.1 Market Drivers 73
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 73
    8.3 Market Constraints 74
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 74
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 75
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BULGARIA 79
    9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria 79
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Bulgaria (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 84
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 89
    10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 89
    10.2 Technology Trends 90
    11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 92
    11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 92
    11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 92
    11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 93
    12 BULGARIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 94
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 94
    12.2 Support Schemes 95
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 95
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Bulgaria in 2019 and 2020 96
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria 99
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 100
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 100
    12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 100
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 102
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 102
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 102
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 103
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 104
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 106
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 107
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 107
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 108
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BULGARIA 109
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 109
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 113
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 114
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 122
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 124
    16 REFERENCES 126
    17 DISCLAIMER 128
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND BULGARIA 129

  • Map 1: Where is Bulgaria on the European Map 17
    Map 2: Bulgaria Road Network 18
    Map 3: Bulgaria Administrative Regions Map 20
    Map 4: Bulgaria Electricity Grids Network 45
    Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 55
    MAP 7: Bulgaria Natura 2000 Areas Map 101
    MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 129
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 130
    Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 131

    Chart 1: Bulgaria Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 22
    Chart 2: Bulgaria GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 23
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 25
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2019 28
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 30
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 31
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 32
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2019 (MW) 33
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2019 34
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2019 (MW) 35
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2009 – 2019 in the EU 36
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2009 – 2019, EPO PATSTAT 39
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 41
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 42
    Chart 16: Bulgaria Power Market Structure 44
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Bulgaria in 2019 47
    Chart 18: Bulgaria Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 48
    Chart 19: Bulgaria Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 49
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Bulgaria 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 51
    Chart 21: Bulgaria Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 53
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Bulgaria 2009 – 2019, EPO PATSTAT 61
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 65
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 66
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Bulgaria by 2030 (in €) 68
    Chart 27: Bulgarian SEFF Structure 80
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 87
    Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2020 90
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Bulgaria in 2019 114

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 52
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Bulgaria 54
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Bulgaria for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 67
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Bulgaria in 2020 68
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Bulgaria 70
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 85
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 85
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 86
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 87
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2020 91

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