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Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2019 - 2028

Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2019÷2028 - Single User

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2019 ÷ 2028...

Update: September, 2019
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 124
Report production №:
RMWIN349201985
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next 10 years period 2019 ÷ 2028. Poland is very interesting market due to its political and economic stability, high prices for electricity and heavy dependence on coal and lignite in power generation, which should be changed to comply with EU renewable policy. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria Romania and Italy, Poland represents a stable investment environment in Central-East Europe.

    Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country by the end of 2018 stays at below 500 MW and is insignificant, but this represents only potential for further growth if the Polish government finds suitable balance for its several times changed in recent years renewable energy policy. By geographical distribution the largest share of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Poland is belonging to the Lublin province with more than 10 % of all installations in the country. Is it possible Polish solar PV market to start growing sizeable in the near future? How the referential feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and auction scheme from 1st July 2016 will influence the photovoltaic market in Poland this and next years?

    What is the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Poland? Answer you will find in enclosed in the report detailed Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Polish photovoltaic (solar PV) market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 was challenging year for photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2019 and the next years is limited. Fast changing market environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Overview of the Polish political and economic environment
    • Solar resource potential in Poland
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Polish photovoltaic market development 2008 ÷ 2028
    • Grid connected photovoltaic power installations for 2018/2019
    • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2019 ÷ 2028
    • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
    • Key companies and competitive landscape in photovoltaic sector
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    10
    1.1    Research Methodology    10
    1.2    Limitations    11
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    12
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland    12
    2.2    Poland Solar Resource Potential    12
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Poland    13
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    14
    2.5    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland    14
    2.6    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland    14
    2.7    Market Forecast Summary    15
    3    POLAND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    17
    3.1    Basic Country Data    17
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    21
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    23
    3.4    Taxes    27
    3.4.1    VAT    27
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    27
    4    CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET    28
    4.1    General Electricity Market information    28
    4.2    Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector    34
    4.3    Single Electricity Market    37
    5    CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    40
    5.1    Market Overview    40
    5.2    Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    41
    5.3    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    42
    5.4    Future Development Trends    43
    6    POLAND POWER MARKET    44
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    44
    6.2    Electricity Consumption and Generation    46
    6.3    Electricity Imports and Exports    48
    6.4    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    50
    6.5    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    51
    7    POLAND PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    53
    7.1    Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland?    53
    7.2    Poland Solar Resource Potential    55
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    56
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Poland    56
    7.5    Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland    56
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    60
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    60
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    61
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    63
    7.10    Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    64
    7.11    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    65
    7.12    Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    67
    7.13    Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland    67
    7.14    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland    68
    7.15    Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland Under Development    68
    7.16    Mergers and Acquisitions    73
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND. SWOT ANALYSIS    75
    8.1    Market Drivers    75
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    75
    8.3    Market Constraints    75
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    75
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    76
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND    79
    9.1    Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland    79
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    84
    10    TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS    87
    10.1    Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview    87
    10.2    Technology Trends    88
    11    EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    91
    11.1    RES Regulations and EU Directives    91
    11.1.1    Precedent EU regulations    91
    11.1.2    Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments    91
    12    POLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    92
    12.1    Main Laws and Regulations    92
    12.2    Support Schemes    94
    12.3    Green Certificates Trading    95
    12.4    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland    95
    12.5    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland    96
    12.6    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    96
    12.6.1    Zoning Plans Procedure    96
    12.6.2    Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure    97
    12.7    Environmental Related Authorizations    97
    12.7.1    Natura 2000 Network    98
    12.7.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    99
    12.8    Energy Law Authorizations    99
    12.8.1    Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW    100
    12.8.2    Grid Interconnection    101
    12.8.3    Power Off-Take    101
    12.8.4    Feed-in Tariff (FIT)    102
    12.8.5    Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    102
    12.9    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    103
    13    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND    103
    13.1    Government Stakeholders    103
    13.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    107
    13.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    108
    14    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    117
    15    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    120
    16    REFERENCES    122
    17    DISCLAIMER    124
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND    125

  • Map 1: Where is Poland on the European Map 15
    Map 2: Poland Road Network 16
    Map 3: Poland Administrative Regions Map 18
    Map 4: Poland Electricity Grids Network 42
    Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 51
    Map 6: Poland Transmission Network Scheme With Available Power Connection Capacity by 2023 (Output Status for 2019) 53
    MAP 7: Poland Natura 2000 Areas Map 98
    MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 126
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 127
    Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe, 128

    Chart 1: Poland Real GDP Growth for the Period 2008 ÷ 2028 in % (including forecast) 20
    Chart 2: Poland GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2008 ÷ 2028 in % (including forecast) 21
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 23
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2019 26
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %); EuroStat 28
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2008 – 2019; Renewable Market WatchTM 29
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 30
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2019 (MW) 31
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2019  32
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2019 (MW) 33
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2019 in the EU  33
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2009 – 2019  37
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 38
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 39
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 40
    Chart 16: Poland Power Market Structure 41
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Poland in 2019 43
    Chart 18: Poland Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2019 44
    Chart 19: Poland Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 45
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Poland 2008 ÷ 2028 (in million kWh) including forecast 46
    Chart 21: Poland Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2020 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 48
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Poland 2009 – 2019  57
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 60
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in Millions EUR) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 61
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2008 ÷ 2028, including forecast 62
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Poland by 2030 (in €)  64
    Chart 27: PolSEFF Structure 78
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 84
    Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2019  87
    Chart 30: Reference Auction Price for New Renewable Energy Power Plants in Poland ≤ 1 MW in 2019 102
    Chart 31: Reference Auction Price for New Renewable Energy Power Plants in Poland ≥ 1 MW in 2019 103
    Chart 32: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Poland in 2019 111
    Chart 33: Corporate Governance Structure of PGE 113

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 47
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Poland 50
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland for 2019 ÷ 2028 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2019 Update) 63
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland in 2019 64
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland 66
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 83
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 83
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 84
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 85
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2019 (pvXchange) 88

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