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Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020 - 2030

Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2020 - 2030...

Update: March, 2020
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 124
Report production №:
RMWIN349202085
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included subscription for 1 year period with 4 qurterly updates

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next 10 years period 2020 ÷ 2030. Poland is very interesting market due to its political and economic stability, high prices for electricity and heavy dependence on coal and lignite in power generation, which should be changed to comply with EU renewable policy. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria Romania and Italy, Poland represents a stable investment environment in Central-East Europe.

    Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country by the end of 2019 stays at below XXX MW and is insignificant, but this represents only potential for further growth if the Polish government finds suitable balance for its several times changed in recent years renewable energy policy. By geographical distribution the largest share of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Poland is belonging to the Lublin province with more than 10 % of all installations in the country. Is it possible Polish solar PV market to start growing sizeable in the near future? How the referential feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and auction scheme from 1st July 2016 will influence the photovoltaic market in Poland this and next years?

    What is the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Poland? Answer you will find in enclosed in the report detailed Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Polish photovoltaic (solar PV) market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2019 was challenging year for photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next years is limited. Fast changing market environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Overview of the Polish political and economic environment
    • Solar resource potential in Poland
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Polish photovoltaic market development 2010 ÷ 2030
    • Grid connected photovoltaic power installations for 2019/2020
    • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2020 ÷ 2030
    • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
    • Key companies and competitive landscape in photovoltaic sector
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 8
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
    1.1 Research Methodology 9
    1.2 Limitations 10
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland 11
    2.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential 11
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Poland 12
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland 13
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
    3 POLAND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
    3.1 Basic Country Data 14
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
    3.4 Taxes 21
    3.4.1 VAT 22
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
    4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 24
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
    4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
    4.3 Single Electricity Market 33
    5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 36
    5.1 Market Overview 36
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 37
    5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 39
    5.4 Future Development Trends 39
    6 POLAND POWER MARKET 41
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 41
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 43
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 47
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 48
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 49
    7 POLAND PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 51
    7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland? 51
    7.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential 52
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 53
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Poland 54
    7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland 55
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 56
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 57
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 58
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 59
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 61
    7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 63
    7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 63
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland 64
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland 65
    7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland Under Development 66
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 69
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND. SWOT ANALYSIS 70
    8.1 Market Drivers 70
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 70
    8.3 Market Constraints 71
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 71
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 72
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND 76
    9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland 76
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 81
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 86
    10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 86
    10.2 Technology Trends 87
    11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 89
    11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 89
    11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 89
    11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 90
    12 POLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 91
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 91
    12.2 Support Schemes 92
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 92
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland in 2020 93
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland 96
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 97
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 97
    12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 98
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 99
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 99
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 99
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 100
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 103
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 104
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 104
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 105
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND 106
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 106
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 110
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 111
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 119
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 121
    16 REFERENCES 123
    17 DISCLAIMER 125
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND 126

  • Map 1: Where is Poland on the European Map 14
    Map 2: Poland Road Network 15
    Map 3: Poland Administrative Regions Map 17
    Map 4: Poland Electricity Grids Network 42
    Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 52
    MAP 6: Poland Natura 2000 Areas Map 98
    MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 126
    Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 127
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 128

    Chart 1: Poland Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
    Chart 2: Poland GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 20
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 22
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2019 25
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 27
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 29
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2019 (MW) 30
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2019 31
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2019 (MW) 32
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2009 – 2019 in the EU 33
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2009 – 2019 36
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 37
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
    Chart 16: Poland Power Market Structure 41
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Poland in 2019 44
    Chart 18: Poland Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 45
    Chart 19: Poland Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 46
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Poland 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 48
    Chart 21: Poland Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 50
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Poland 2009 – 2019 58
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 61
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Poland by 2030 (in €) 65
    Chart 27: Polish SEFF Structure 77
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 84
    Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2020 87
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Poland in 2019 111

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Poland 51
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2019 Update) 64
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland in 2020 65
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland 67
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 82
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 82
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 83
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 84
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2020 88

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