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Poland Photvoltaic Market: Outlook 2015÷2025

Poland Solar PV Market: Outlook 2016÷2025 - Single User

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025...

Update: June, 2017
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 124
Report production №: RMWIN349201685
Delivery:
24 - 48 hours by e-mail

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next 10 years period 2016 ÷ 2025. Poland is very interesting market due to its political and economic stability, high prices for electricity and heavy dependence on coal and lignite in power generation, which should be changed to comply with EU renewable policy. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria Romania and Italy, Poland represents a stable investment environment in Central-East Europe. Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country by the end of 2016 stays at below 200 MW and is insignificant, but this represents only potential for further growth if the Polish government finds suitable balance for its several times changed in recent years renewable energy policy. Is it possible Polish solar PV market to start growing sizeable in next years?

    How the referential feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and auction scheme from 1st July 2016 will influence the photovoltaic market in Poland this and next years? The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Polish photovoltaic (solar PV) market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2016 was challenging year for photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2017 and the next years is limited. Fast changing market environment with falling module prices, requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:

    • Overview of the Polish political and economic environment
    • Solar resource potential in Poland
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Polish photovoltaic market development 2000 ÷ 2025
    • Grid connected photovoltaic power installations for 2016
    • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2016 ÷ 2025
    • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
    • Key companies and competitive landscape in photovoltaic sector
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

    At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS    3
    FOREWORD    8
    1    METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS    10
    1.1    Research Methodology    10
    1.2    Limitations    11
    2    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY    12
    2.1    Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland    12
    2.2    Poland Solar Resource Potential    12
    2.3    Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Poland    13
    2.4    Market Drivers and Constraints    14
    2.5    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland    14
    2.6    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland    14
    2.7    Market Forecast Summary    15
    3    POLAND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS    17
    3.1    Basic Country Data    17
    3.2    Political Climate and Ruling Party    21
    3.3    GDP and Economic Growth    23
    3.4    Taxes    27
    3.4.1    VAT    27
    3.4.2    Income and Corporate Taxes    27
    4    CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET    28
    4.1    General Electricity Market information    28
    4.2    Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector    34
    4.3    Single Electricity Market    37
    5    CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    40
    5.1    Market Overview    40
    5.2    Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    41
    5.3    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    42
    5.4    Future Development Trends    43
    6    POLAND POWER MARKET    44
    6.1    Electricity Transmission and Distribution    44
    6.2    Electricity Consumption and Generation    46
    6.3    Electricity Imports and Exports    48
    6.4    Electricity Prices for Business and Households    50
    6.5    Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets    51
    7    POLAND PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET    53
    7.1    Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland?    53
    7.2    Poland Solar Resource Potential    55
    7.3    Licensing Period Duration    56
    7.4    Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Poland    56
    7.5    Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland    56
    7.6    Market Structure Analysis    60
    7.7    Investment Trends and Development Roadmap    60
    7.8    Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    61
    7.9    Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market    63
    7.10    Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    64
    7.11    Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue    65
    7.12    Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition    67
    7.13    Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland    67
    7.14    Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland    68
    7.15    Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland Under Development    68
    7.16    Mergers and Acquisitions    73
    8    DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND. SWOT ANALYSIS    75
    8.1    Market Drivers    75
    8.2    Market Drivers Explained    75
    8.3    Market Constraints    75
    8.4    Market Constraints Explained    75
    8.5    SWOT Analysis    76
    9    FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND    79
    9.1    Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland    79
    9.2    Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.)    84
    10    TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS    87
    10.1    Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview    87
    10.2    Technology Trends    88
    11    EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE    91
    11.1    RES Regulations and EU Directives    91
    11.1.1    Precedent EU regulations    91
    11.1.2    Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments    91
    12    POLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK    92
    12.1    Main Laws and Regulations    92
    12.2    Support Schemes    94
    12.3    Green Certificates Trading    95
    12.4    Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland    95
    12.5    Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland    96
    12.6    Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations    96
    12.6.1    Zoning Plans Procedure    96
    12.6.2    Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure    97
    12.7    Environmental Related Authorizations    97
    12.7.1    Natura 2000 Network    98
    12.7.2    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)    99
    12.8    Energy Law Authorizations    99
    12.8.1    Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW    100
    12.8.2    Grid Interconnection    101
    12.8.3    Power Off-Take    101
    12.8.4    Feed-in Tariff (FIT)    102
    12.8.5    Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin)    102
    12.9    Future Market Pricing Mechanisms    103
    13    KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND    103
    13.1    Government Stakeholders    103
    13.2    Non-Government Stakeholders    107
    13.3    Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s)    108
    14    CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS    117
    15    LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS    120
    16    REFERENCES    122
    17    DISCLAIMER    124
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND    125

  • Map 1: Where is Poland on the European Map    17
    Map 2: Poland Road Network    18
    Map 3: Poland Administrative Regions Map    20
    Map 4: Poland Electricity Grids Network    46
    Map 5: Solar Resource Map of Poland    54
    Map 6: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Poland  55
    MAP 7: Poland Natura 2000 Areas Map    98
    MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland  125
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland  125
    Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe  126

    Chart 1: Poland Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    25
    Chart 2: Poland GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast)    26
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries     27
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2016    29
    Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries, 2016 (in %), EuroStat    31
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016    32
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E    33
    Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope, SolarPower Europe    34
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; SolarPower Europe    35
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope    36
    Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindEurope    36
    Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindEurope    37
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    41
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    42
    Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    43
    Chart 17: Poland Power Market Structure    44
    Chart 18: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Poland in 2016    46
    Chart 19: Poland Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016    47
    Chart 20: Poland Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016    48
    Chart 21: Electricity Imports and Exports in Poland 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast    49
    Chart 22: Poland Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2020 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)    52
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Poland (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast     64
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power  Plants in Poland (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    65
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    66
    Chart 26: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast    66
    Chart 27: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland    68
    Chart 28: PolSEFF Structure    80
    Chart 29: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    86
    Chart 30: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2016 (BNEF, PV news, EU Commission – DG JRC, Roland Berger)    88
    Chart 31: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators in Poland in 2016    108
    Chart 32: Corporate Governance Structure of PGE    110

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households    50
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Poland    53
    Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition     67
    Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland    68
    Table 6: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland    70
    Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    84
    Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost)    85
    Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland    85
    Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative)    86
    Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in April 2017   89
    Table 12: Green Certificates for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Poland    103