Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Belarus is expected to grow in the period 2020 - 2030. New feed-in tariffs for solar PV power entered into force in 2015 ...
Update: January 2021
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 114
Report production №: RMWIN3502020158
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Belarus, a landlocked, generally flat country (the average elevation is 162 meters above sea level) without natural borders, occupies an area of 207,600 km2, or slightly smaller than the United Kingdom or the state of Kansas. Its neighbors are Russia to the east and northeast, Latvia to the north, Lithuania to the northwest, Poland to the west, and Ukraine to the south. Its extension from north to south is 560 km, from west to east is 650 km. The population of Belarus was 9.51 million and the current gross domestic product (GDP) was $59.6 billion as of 2018.
Belarus solar photovoltaic power market value, which was USD XXX million in 2019, is expected to grow to USD XXX million in 2020, at a CAGR of XXX percent. Renewable energy sources (RES) account for less than XXX percent of the total fuel and energy consumption in Belarus in 2019. The figure is projected to reach XXX percent by 2020. As a net energy importer, the national energy policy of Belarus is focused on maintaining energy security and stability in the country and reducing energy import dependency through increased energy efficiency measures. A new “Concept of Energy Security” came into force on 1 January 2016 and defines the long-term view on the country’s energy sector development. The main priority of Belarus energy policy is to increase energy efficiency and to develop local sources of energy: 80 % of the energy consumption is currently imported.
Belarusian mobile operator Velcom informed in 2016 about the opening of one the largest solar PV power plants in the country till the moment. It is located Bragin in the southern part of Belarus. This solar PV power plant has 22 MWp capacity and covers an area of more than 41 ha and with 85,000 solar PV modules delivered by Chinese solar manufacturer Risen Energy Co Ltd.
Belarus is ranked among top 5 countries by attractiveness for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy investments among CIS countries by Renewable Market Watch in their yearly updated "Attractiveness index for solar photovoltaic (PV) energy investments in CIS countries in 2020". The country’s main strategy to meet the growing need of power is to reduce the energy dependency by increasing the energy efficiency, increased use of renewable resources, nuclear sources, and connecting to the European power infrastructure and power infrastructure of Commonwealth Independent States (CIS).
Current cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) power capacity in the country is XXX MW at the end of 2019 and number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2020 and next years. First photovoltaic (PV) power plants have been launched into commercial operation between 2012 and 2018, whilst pipeline of over 230 MW solar power projects are progressing in different stages of permitting process for grid connection by 2020. Feed-in tariff for photovoltaic (PV) energy has been updated in Belarus in May 2015 combined with 20 years PPA period is expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind energy market in Belarus.
The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 110 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Belarus photovoltaic (PV) power market will receive overview how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for world photovoltaic (PV) energy industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:
- Solar resource potential in Belarus
- Historical market data provided from 2009 to 2019 and forecasts until 2030
- Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 45 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of Belarus photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2010 ÷ 2030
- Development scenario of Belarus photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2030
- Major active and upcoming solar PV power plants in Belarus
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
- Attractiveness index for solar photovoltaic investments in Belarus and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Belarus legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Belarus
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector in Belarus
- Investment potential and opportunities
At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Belarus 11
2.2 Belarus Solar Resource Potential 11
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Belarus 12
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus 13
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
3 BELARUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
3.1 Basic Country Data 14
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
3.4 Taxes 21
3.4.1 VAT 22
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 24
4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 33
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 37
5.1 Market Overview 37
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 38
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 40
5.4 Future Development Trends 40
6 BELARUS POWER MARKET 42
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
7 BELARUS PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 52
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Belarus? 52
7.2 Belarus Solar Resource Potential 53
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 54
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Belarus 55
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Belarus 56
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 57
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 59
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 60
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 62
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 64
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 64
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Belarus 65
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Belarus 66
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus Under Development 67
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BELARUS. SWOT ANALYSIS 71
8.1 Market Drivers 71
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 71
8.3 Market Constraints 72
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 72
8.5 SWOT Analysis 73
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BELARUS 77
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Belarus 77
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 82
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 87
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 87
10.2 Technology Trends 88
11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 90
12 BELARUS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 92
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 92
12.2 Support Schemes 93
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 93
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Belarus in 2020 94
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Belarus 96
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 97
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 97
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 99
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation 99
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 100
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 103
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 104
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 104
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 105
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BELARUS 106
13.1 Government Stakeholders 106
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 110
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 111
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 119
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 121
16 REFERENCES 123
17 DISCLAIMER 125
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND BELARUS 1264
13.1 Government Stakeholders 104
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 107
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 107
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 109
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 111
16 REFERENCES 113
17 DISCLAIMER 115
APPENDIX I. SOLAR MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND BELARUS 116
APPENDIX II. CALCULATIONS DESCRIPTION TO FINANCIAL MODEL 117
- Map 1: Where is Belarus on the European Map 14
Map 2: Belarus Road Network 15
Map 3: Belarus Administrative Regions Map 17
Map 4: Belarus Electricity Grids Network 43
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Belarus 53
MAP 6: Belarus Emerald Network of Environment Protected Areas Map 98
MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Belarus 126
Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Belarus 127
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 128
Chart 1: Belarus Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 2: Belarus GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 20
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 22
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2019 25
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2020 (in %) 27
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 29
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 30
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2020 31
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2019 (MW) 32
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2010 – 2020 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 33
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 – 2020 37
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
Chart 16: Belarus Power Market Structure 42
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Belarus in 2019 45
Chart 18: Belarus Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 46
Chart 19: Belarus Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 47
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Belarus 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
Chart 21: Belarus Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Belarus 2010 – 2020 59
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Belarus (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Belarus by 2030 (in €) 66
Chart 27: Belarusian SEFF Structure 78
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus 85
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2020 88
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Belarus in 2019 111
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries 53
Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Belarus for 2019 ÷ 2028 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2019 Update) 64
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Belarus 64
Table 6: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Belarus 66
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus 78
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 78
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus 79
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Belarus (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 79
Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2019 82
Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs (FiT) for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Belarus Commissioned After 20.08.2015 101
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