Wind Power Market in Belarus is expected to grow in the period 2016 - 2025. New feed-in tariffs for wind energy entered into force in 2015 ...
Update: June, 2017
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 112
Report production №: RMWIN3502016159
Delivery: Up to 24 hours by e-mail
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the wid power sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Belarus represents an interesting investment destination in CIS region with one of the highest feed-in tariff support levels in the world.
Current cumulative installed wind power capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2017 and next years. First wind power plants have been launched into commercial operation between 2012 and 2016, whilst pipeline of over 200 MW wind power projects are progressing in different stages of permitting process for grid connection by 2020. Feed-in tariff for wind energy has been updated in Belarus in May 2015 combined with 20 years PPA period is expected to pave the way for fast further growth of wind energy market in Belarus.
The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 110 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Belarus wind power market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:
- Wind resource potential in Belarus
- Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
- Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 45 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of Belarus wind power market development 2000 ÷ 2025
- Development scenario of Belarus wind power sector until 2025
- Major active and upcoming wind power plants in Belarus
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind power projects
- Attractiveness index for wind power investments in Belarus and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Belarus legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Belarus
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the wind power sector in Belarus
- Investment potential and opportunities
At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus 11
2.2 Belarus Wind Resource Potential 11
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Belarus 11
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints 11
2.5 Market Forecast Summary 12
3 BELARUS POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 13
3.1 Basic Country Data 13
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 16
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 17
3.4 Taxes 20
3.4.1 VAT 21
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Excise Duty 22
4 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 23
4.1 General Electricity Market information 23
4.2 Wind Power in Energy Sector 29
4.3 Single Electricity Market of European Union (EU) 34
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 36
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union 36
5 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) WIND POWER MARKET 37
5.1 Market Overview 37
5.2 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 38
5.3 Annual Installed New Wind Power Capacity 39
5.4 Future Development Trends 40
6 BELARUS POWER MARKET 42
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 46
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 47
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 48
7 BELARUS WIND POWER MARKET 50
7.1 Why Invest in Wind Power in Belarus? 50
7.2 Belarus Wind Resource Potential 51
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 52
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Belarus 52
7.5 Overview of Wind Power Market in Belarus 53
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 54
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 54
7.8 Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market 55
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market 55
7.10 Cumulative Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 56
7.11 Annual New Installed Wind Power Capacity 57
7.12 Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Belarus in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 58
7.13 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Belarus 59
7.14 Key Wind Power Projects in Belarus 60
7.15 Mergers and Acquisitions 60
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN BELARUS. SWOT ANALYSIS 61
8.1 Market Drivers 61
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 61
8.3 Market Constraints 62
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 62
8.5 SWOT Analysis 63
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN BELARUS 66
9.1 Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Belarus 66
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Belarus (IRR, Discount rate, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 70
10 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 75
10.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 75
10.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 75
10.2 Renewable energy mandatory targets for CEE & SEE countries set out by the EU 76
10.2.1 Interim targets set out by the EU 76
10.2.2 National support schemes flexibility allowed by the EU and progress reporting 77
10.2.3 Energy Community (EC) Treaty 78
10.3 EU 2030 framework for climate and energy policies 79
10.3.1 Targets 82
10.3.2 Coherence of policy instruments 84
10.3.3 Fostering the competitiveness of the EU economy 85
10.4 RES strategy for CIS countries developed by UN ECE 86
10.4.1 Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training 87
10.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets For CIS Countries 87
11 BELARUS RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 89
11.1 Main Laws and Regulations 89
11.2 Republican Energy Saving Program 2016 – 2020 90
11.3 Support Scheme. Feed-in Tariff 91
11.4 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 91
11.4.1 Zoning Plans Procedure 92
11.4.2 Building Permit (Construction License) Procedure 93
11.5 Environmental Related Authorizations 93
11.5.1 Natura 2000 Network 93
11.5.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 95
11.6 Energy Law Authorizations 96
11.6.1 Grid Interconnection 96
11.6.2 Power Off-Take/Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) 97
11.6.3 Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 97
11.7 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 97
12 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BELARUS 98
12.1 Government Stakeholders 98
12.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 101
12.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 101
13 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 104
14 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 106
15 REFERENCES 108
16 DISCLAIMER 110
APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTTRIES AND BELARUS 111
APPENDIX II. CALCULATIONS DESCRIPTION TO FINANCIAL MODEL 112
- Map 1: Where is Belarus on the CIS Countries Map 13
Map 2: Belarus Road Network 14
Map 3: Belarus Administrative Regions Map 15
Map 4: Electricity Grid Map of Belarus (750-330-220-110 kV) 44
Map 5: Wind Resource Map of Belarus 51
Map 6: Wind Resource Map of Belarus 52
MAP 7: Belarus Natura 2000 Areas Map 94
MAP 8: Mean Wind Speed in CIS Countries at 80 m.a.g.l. 111
Map 9: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l. 112
Chart 1: Belarus Real GDP Growth (in %) for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 18
Chart 2: Belarus GDP Growth Compared to EU-28 for the Period 2002 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 19
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 21
Chart 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States (IPS/UPS is Shown in Orange, UCTE is Equal to ENTSO-E) 24
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2016 (in %); EuroStat 26
Chart 6: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries, 2015 (in %), EuroStat 27
Chart 7: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2008 – 2017; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 8: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E 28
Chart 9: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2016 (MW), WindEurope 30
Chart 10: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016 in MW; SolarPower Europe 31
Chart 11: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope 32
Chart 12: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016 in the EU, WindEurope 33
Chart 13: Net Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 28 for 2016 (GW), WindEurope 33
Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 38
Chart 15: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions €) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 39
Chart 16: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 40
Chart 17: Belarus Power Market Structure 42
Chart 18: Structure of the Power Market in Belarus 43
Chart 19: Share of RES Electricity (incl. Large Hydro) from Total Installed Power Capacity in Belarus 45
Chart 20: Belarus Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in GWh) 2000 ÷ 2016 46
Chart 21: Tariff Regulation in Power Sector of Belarus 47
Chart 22: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 56
Chart 23: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in Millions €) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 57
Chart 24: Annual New Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Belarus (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 58
Chart 25: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Belarus in USD cents/KWh; GEF UNDP 59
Chart 26: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 73
Chart 27: Corporate Governance Structure of Belenergo 102
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 48
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries 50
Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Belarus for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2017 Update) 58
Table 4: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Wind Power Projects in Belarus 60
Table 5: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 72
Table 6: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 72
Table 7: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus 73
Table 8: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Belarus (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 73
Table 9: Feed-in-tariffs (FiT) for Electricity from Wind Energy Sources (RES) in Belarus Commissioned After 20.08.2015 91