Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2016 - 2025. New feed-in tariffs for solar power entered into force in 2014 ...
Update: June, 2017; NOTE: We have a new version of this report for the 2024 - 2033 period. Please review it here: https://renewablemarketwatch.com/country-reports/cis/kazakhstan
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 138
Report production №: RMWIN3492016157
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. Given recent FIT cuts in Germany, Spain, France, the UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in the CIS region with clear rules feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. The country's current cumulative installed PV capacity is insignificant, but the number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2017 and next years.
First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commercial operation, whilst pipeline of over 700 MW solar projects pipeline is progressing in different permitting process stages. Feed-in tariff for solar energy was approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014, combined with 15 years PPA period and announced auction (tender) procedure are expected to pave the way for the fast further growth of the solar PV market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and prospects.
You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique, in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan photovoltaic market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:
- Solar resource potential in Kazakhstan
- Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
- Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 55 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
- Overview of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 1990 ÷ 2025
- Development scenario of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2025
- Major active and upcoming photovoltaic plants in Kazakhstan
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
- Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Kazakhstan legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the photovoltaic sector in Kazakhstan
- Investment potential and opportunities
On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report, just click on the button "ADD TO CART". The table of contents is referential and may vary upon report updates. If you have any other questions or data requests, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 10
1.1 Research Methodology 10
1.2 Limitations 11
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 12
2.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 12
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Kazakhstan 13
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints 14
2.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan 14
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan 14
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 15
3 KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
3.1 Basic Country Data 17
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 20
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 22
3.4 Taxes 26
3.4.1 VAT 27
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 27
4 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 28
4.1 General Electricity Market information 28
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 35
4.3 Single Electricity Market of European Union 38
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 41
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union 41
5 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 42
5.1 Market Overview 42
5.2 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 43
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 44
5.4 Future Development Trends 45
6 KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET 46
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 46
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 49
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 51
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 53
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 54
7 KAZAKHSTAN PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 57
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan? 57
7.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 58
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 59
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Kazakhstan 60
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 60
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 64
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 64
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 65
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 66
7.10 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 67
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 68
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 70
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan 70
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan 71
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development 71
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 76
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS 78
8.1 Market Drivers 78
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 78
8.3 Market Constraints 78
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 78
8.5 SWOT Analysis 79
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN 82
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan 82
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 87
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 90
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 90
10.2 Technology Trends 91
11 CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 94
11.1 RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries 94
11.1.1 Precedent Regulations 94
11.1.2 EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies 95
11.1.3 EU Energy Roadmap 2050 99
11.2 RES Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE 101
11.2.1 Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training 102
11.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries 103
12 KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 105
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 105
12.2 Support Schemes 106
12.3 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan 107
12.4 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants 108
12.5 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 109
12.6 Environmental Related Authorizations 109
12.6.1 Environment Protected Areas 110
12.6.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 111
12.7 Energy Law Authorizations 112
12.7.1 Power Generation Licensing 112
12.7.2 Grid Interconnection and quota limitations by 2020 114
12.7.3 Power Off-Take 114
12.7.4 Feed-in tariff (FIT) 114
12.7.5 RES Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 116
12.8 Additional Incentives for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan 116
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 116
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN 117
13.1 Government Stakeholders 117
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 119
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 119
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 130
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 133
16 REFERENCES 135
17 DISCLAIMER 138
APPENDIX I. SOLAR MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND KAZAKHSTAN 139
- Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the CIS Countries Map 16
MAP 2: Major Transport Corridors Passing Through Kazakhstan 17
MAP 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map 19
MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States 28
MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States, ENTSO-E 29
Map 6: Electricity Grid Map of Kazakhstan (1150-500-220-110 kV), KEGOC 49
Map 7: Solar Resource Map of Kazakhstan 58
MAP 8: Environment Protected Areas in Kazakhstan 111
Map 9: Districts covered by East Kazakhstan Regional Energy Company JSC (EK REC) 127
MAP 10: Districts covered by PAVLODARENERGO/Central-Asian Electric Power Corporation (CAEPCO) 128
Map 11: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS countries 139
Map 12: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS Countries 140
Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 24
Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 25
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 26
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2016 29
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2016 (in %), EuroStat 31
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016 32
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E 33
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope, SolarPower Europe 34
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; SolarPower Europe 35
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope 36
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindEurope 36
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindEurope 37
Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 42
Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 43
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 43
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 44
Chart 17: Existing and Planned High Voltage Interconnection Power Lines of Kazakhstan with Neighbor Countries 46
Chart 18: Structure of the Existing Wholesale Electricity Power Market in Kazakhstan 46
Chart 19: Structure of Kazakhstan Power Market 47
Chart 20: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2016 49
Chart 21: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016 50
Chart 22: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016 50
Chart 23: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast 51
Chart 24: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2050 (in %) 54
Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 66
Chart 26: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 67
Chart 27: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 68
Chart 28: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 68
Chart 29: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan 70
Chart 30: KAZSEFF Structure 82
Chart 31: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 88
Chart 32: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 1990 ÷ 2016 (BNEF, PV news, EU Commission – DG JRC, Roland Berger) 91
Chart 33: Corporate Structure of KEGOC 119
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 52
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries 56
Table 4: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 69
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan 70
Table 6: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan 72
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 87
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 87
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 87
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 88
Table 11: Crystalline Module Price Trend in April 2017 92
Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Kazakhstan 114
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