Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2023 - 2032. New auction (tender) support scheme entered into force in ...
Update: January 2023; NOTE: We have a new version of this report for the 2024 - 2033 period. Please review it here: https://renewablemarketwatch.com/country-reports/cis/kazakhstan
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 138
Report production №: RMWIN3492023157
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2023 ÷ 2032. Because of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in the CIS region with clear rules, feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. The country's current cumulative installed PV capacity exceeds 1.14 GW, and the number of fully permitted and ready-to-build projects will promptly increase in 2023 and the next years.
First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commercial operation, whilst a pipeline of over 2,000 MW (2 GW) solar projects is progressing in different permitting process stages. Furthermore, the feed-in tariff for solar energy was approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014, and combined with the 15-year PPA period auction (tender) procedure, it is expected to pave the way for further fast growth of the solar PV market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and prospects.
You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique, in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan photovoltaic market. You will receive an overview of how COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2021 and 2022 were challenging years for the world photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2023 and the next few years is limited. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:
- Solar resource potential in Kazakhstan
- Historical market data provided from 2012 to 2022 and forecasts until 2032
- Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 55 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
- Overview of Kazakhstan photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2012 ÷ 2032
- Development scenario of Kazakhstan's photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2032
- Major active and upcoming photovoltaic plants in Kazakhstan
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
- Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Kazakhstan's legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the photovoltaic sector in Kazakhstan
- Investment potential and opportunities
On the next pages, you will see this report's full table of contents. To order this report, click "ADD TO CART". The table of contents is referential and may vary upon report updates. If you have any other questions or data requests, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 11
2.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 11
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Kazakhstan 12
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan 13
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
3 KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
3.1 Basic Country Data 14
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
3.4 Taxes 21
3.4.1 VAT 22
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 24
4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 33
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 37
5.1 Market Overview 37
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 38
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 40
5.4 Future Development Trends 40
6 KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET 42
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
7 KAZAKHSTAN PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 52
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan? 52
7.2 Kazakhstan Solar Resource Potential 53
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 55
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Kazakhstan 55
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Kazakhstan 57
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 58
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 60
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 61
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 63
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 64
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 65
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan 66
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Kazakhstan 67
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development 68
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS 72
8.1 Market Drivers 72
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 72
8.3 Market Constraints 73
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 73
8.5 SWOT Analysis 74
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN 78
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Kazakhstan 78
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 83
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 88
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 88
10.2 Technology Trends 89
11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 91
12 KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 93
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 93
12.2 Support Schemes 94
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 94
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakhstan in 2020 95
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan 97
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 98
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 98
12.7.1 Environment Protected Areas 99
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 100
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 100
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 100
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 101
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 104
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 105
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 105
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 106
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN 107
13.1 Government Stakeholders 107
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 111
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 112
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 120
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 122
16 REFERENCES 124
17 DISCLAIMER 126
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND KAZAKHSTAN 127
- Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the European Map 14
Map 2: Kazakhstan Road Network 15
Map 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map 17
Map 4: Kazakhstan Electricity Grids Network 43
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 54
MAP 6: Kazakhstan Environment Protected Areas Map 99
MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 127
Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Kazakhstan 128
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 129
Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2012 ÷ 2032 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2012 ÷ 2032 in % (including forecast) 20
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 22
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2022 25
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-27 in 2022 (in %) 27
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) countries (€/MWh): 2012 – 2022; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2022 and 2032 (in GW) 29
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2022 (MW) 30
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2022 31
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2022 (MW) 32
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2012 – 2022 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 33
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2012 – 2022 37
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 38
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 39
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 40
Chart 16: Kazakhstan Power Market Structure 42
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2022 45
Chart 18: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2012 ÷ 2022 46
Chart 19: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2022 47
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2012 ÷ 2032 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
Chart 21: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2032 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Kazakhstan 2012 – 2022 60
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 63
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions EUR) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 64
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 65
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Kazakhstan by 2032 (in €) 67
Chart 27: Kazakhstani SEFF Structure 79
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 86
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2012 ÷ 2022 89
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Kazakhstan in 2022 112
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Kazakhstan 52
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan for 2023 ÷ 2032 n Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2023 Update) 66
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Kazakhstan in 2023 67
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Kazakhstan 69
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 84
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 84
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 85
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 86
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2023 90
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