Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan is expected to grow fast in the period 2016 - 2025. New feed-in tariffs for wind power entered into force in 2014 ...
Update: June, 2017; NOTE: We have a new version of this report for the 2024 - 2033 period. Please review it here: https://renewablemarketwatch.com/country-reports/cis/kazakhstan
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 137
Report production №: RMWIN3492016158
Delivery: Up to 24 hours by e-mail
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the country's wind power sector for the period 2016 ÷ 2025. Because of recent cuts in FIT’s and green certificates announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Italy, the Republic of Kazakhstan represents a stable investment environment in the CIS region with clear rules and feed-in tariff support scheme and auction (tender) procedure. The country's current cumulative installed wind capacity is insignificant, but the number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2017 and next years.
First MW size wind power plants have been launched into commercial operation, whilst pipeline of over 1,300 MW (1.3 GW) wind projects pipeline is progressing in different permitting process stages. Feed-in tariff for wind energy has been approved in Kazakhstan in June 2014, and combined with 15 years PPA period and announced auction (tender) procedure are expected to pave the way for the fast further growth of the wind power market in Kazakhstan. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and prospects.
You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique, in-depth analysis of the Kazakhstan wind power market. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:
- Wind resource potential in Kazakhstan
- Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2016 and forecasts until 2025
- Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 55 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of announced auction (tender) procedure for renewable power plants in Kazakhstan
- Overview of Kazakhstan wind power market development 1990 ÷ 2025
- Development scenario of Kazakhstan wind power sector until 2025
- Major active and upcoming wind power plants (wind farms) in Kazakhstan
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational wind power projects
- Attractiveness indices for wind energy investments in Kazakhstan and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Kazakhstan legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Kazakhstan
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the wind power sector in Kazakhstan
- Investment potential and opportunities
On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report, just click on the button "ADD TO CART". The table of contents is referential and may vary upon report updates. If you have any other questions or data requests, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 10
1.1 Research Methodology 10
1.2 Limitations 11
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan 12
2.2 Kazakhstan Wind Resource Potential 12
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Kazakhstan 13
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints 14
2.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan 14
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan 14
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 15
3 KAZAKHSTAN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
3.1 Basic Country Data 17
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 20
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 22
3.4 Taxes 26
3.4.1 VAT 26
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 27
4 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 28
4.1 General Electricity Market information 28
4.2 Wind Power in Energy Sector 35
4.3 Single Electricity Market of European Union 39
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 41
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union 42
5 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) WIND POWER MARKET 43
5.1 Market Overview 43
5.2 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 44
5.3 Annual Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 45
5.4 Future Development Trends 46
6 KAZAKHSTAN POWER MARKET 47
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 47
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 50
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 52
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 54
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 55
7 KAZAKHSTAN WIND POWER MARKET 57
7.1 Why Invest in Wind Power in Kazakhstan? 57
7.2 Kazakhstan Wind Resource Potential 58
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 60
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 61
7.5 Overview of Wind Power Market in Kazakhstan 61
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 64
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 64
7.8 Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market 65
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market 67
7.10 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 67
7.11 Annual Installed Wind Power Capacity and Revenue 68
7.12 Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 69
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Kazakhstan 70
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Kazakhstan 70
7.15 Key Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan Under Development 70
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 75
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN. SWOT ANALYSIS 77
8.1 Market Drivers 77
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 77
8.3 Market Constraints 77
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 77
8.5 SWOT Analysis 78
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER MARKET IN KAZAKHSTAN 81
9.1 Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 81
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 86
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 89
10.1 Wind Power Technology Overview 89
10.2 Technology Trends 90
11 CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 93
11.1 RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries 93
11.1.1 Precedent Regulations 93
11.1.2 EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies 94
11.1.3 EU Energy Roadmap 2050 98
11.2 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Strategy for Commonwealth Independent states (CIS) Developed by UN ECE 100
11.2.1 Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training 101
11.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries 102
12 KAZAKHSTAN RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 104
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 104
12.2 Support Schemes 105
12.3 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Kazakshtan 106
12.4 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Wind Power Plants 107
12.5 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 108
12.6 Environmental Related Authorizations 108
12.6.1 Environment Protected Areas 109
12.6.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 110
12.7 Energy Law Authorizations 111
12.7.1 Power Generation Licensing 111
12.7.2 Grid Interconnection and Quota Limitations by 2020 113
12.7.3 Power Off-Take 113
12.7.4 Feed-in tariff (FIT) 113
12.7.5 RES Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 115
12.8 Additional Incentives for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 115
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 115
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN 116
13.1 Government Stakeholders 116
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 118
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 118
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 129
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 132
16 REFERENCES 134
17 DISCLAIMER 137
APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND KAZAKHSTAN 138
- Map 1: Where is Kazakhstan on the CIS Countries Map 17
MAP 2: Major Transport Corridors Passing Through Kazakhstan 18
MAP 3: Kazakhstan Administrative Regions Map 19
MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States 28
MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States, ENTSO-E 29
Map 6: Electricity Grid Map of Kazakhstan (1150-500-220-110 kV), KEGOC 50
Map 7: Wind Resource Map of Kazakhstan at 80 m.a.g.l. 58
MAP 8: Kazakhstan Wind Atlas, Parsons Brinckerhoff 2011 59
MAP 9: Environment Protected Areas in Kazakhstan 110
Map 10: Districts covered by East Kazakhstan Regional Energy Company JSC (EK REC) 126
MAP 11: Districts covered by PAVLODARENERGO/Central-Asian Electric Power Corporation (CAEPCO) 127
Map 12: Mean Wind Speed in CIS Countries at 80 m.a.g.l., 3TIER Inc., 2014 138
Map 13: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l., 3TIER Inc., 2011 139
Chart 1: Kazakhstan Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 24
Chart 2: Kazakhstan GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2000 ÷ 2025 (including forecast) 25
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 26
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2016 30
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2016 (in %), EuroStat 32
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2016 33
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW), ENTSO-E 34
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope, SolarPower Europe 35
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2016; SolarPower Europe 36
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2016 (MW), WindEurope 37
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2016, WindEurope 38
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2016 (GW), WindEurope 38
Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 44
Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 45
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 45
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 46
Chart 17: Existing and Planned High Voltage Interconnection Power Lines of Kazakhstan with Neighbor Countries 47
Chart 18: Structure of the Existing Wholesale Electricity Power Market in Kazakhstan 48
Chart 19: Structure of Kazakhstan Power Market 49
Chart 20: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Kazakhstan in 2016 50
Chart 21: Kazakhstan Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2016 51
Chart 22: Kazakhstan Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2016 52
Chart 23: Electricity Imports and Exports in Kazakhstan 2000 ÷ 2025 (in TWh) including forecast 53
Chart 24: Kazakhstan Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2050 (in %) 56
Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 67
Chart 26: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 68
Chart 27: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in MW) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 68
Chart 28: Annual Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Kazakhstan (in Millions USD) 2000 ÷ 2025, including forecast 69
Chart 29: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Kazakhstan 70
Chart 30: KAZSEFF Structure 82
Chart 31: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 88
Chart 32: Wind Power System Price Evolution (€/MW) 1990 ÷ 2016 91
Chart 33: Corporate Structure of KEGOC 119
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 54
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries 57
Table 3: Kazakhstan Wind Power Potential by Regions (in MW) and Electricity Generation (in GWh) 60
Table 4: Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan for 2016 ÷ 2025 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 69
Table 5: Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Kazakhstan 70
Table 6: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Wind Power Projects in Kazakhstan 72
Table 7: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 86
Table 8: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 87
Table 9: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan 87
Table 10: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Kazakhstan (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 88
Table 11: Wind Turbine Prices in 2017 92
Table 12: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Kazakhstan 114
