Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Russia is expected to grow in the period 2018 - 2027. Government plans of Russia include development of solar PV sector ...
Update: November, 2018
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 151
Report production №: RMWIN3492018184
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2018 ÷ 2027. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Russian Federation represents a challenging investment opportunity in CIS region with state renewable energy support scheme. Current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country is insignificant, but a number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2019 and next years. First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commerical operation in 2016, 2017 and first half of 2018, whilst pipeline of over 1,500 MW (1.5 GW) solar projects are progressing in different stages of development process. Russia has launched at the end of September 2013 its first state support scheme for renewable energy with regulated capacity prices and 15 year PPA term, which is expected to enable further growth of solar PV market in Russian Federation.
Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Dmitry Medvedev signed on July 28, 2015 very important regulatory document called "Decree № 1472-r". This document is fixing previous weak points from the Russian renewable energy law and is expected to create more comfortable and attractive business environment for local and international clean energy investors and particularly those in solar power plants in Russia.
The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 145 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Russia solar PV market. With comprehensive market data this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision making process. As 2016 and 2017 were challenging years for world photovoltaic industry, the time for taking right decisions during 2018 and the next few years is limited. Fast changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience we offer opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but no limited to:
- Solar resource potential in Russia
- Historical market data provided from 2000 to 2017 and forecasts until 2027
- Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 55 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2007 ÷ 2027
- Development scenario of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2027
- Major active and upcoming solar PV power plants in Russia
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational solar PV projects
- Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Russia and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Russia legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Russian
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting development of the photovoltaic sector in Russia
- Investment potential and opportunities
At next pages you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 10
1.1 Research Methodology 10
1.2 Limitations 11
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia 12
2.2 Russia Solar Resource Potential 13
2.3 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Russia 13
2.4 Market Drivers and Constraints 14
2.5 Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia 14
2.6 Market Forecast Summary 15
3 RUSSIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
3.1 Basic Country Data 17
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 20
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 22
3.4 Taxes 25
3.4.1 VAT 25
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 26
4 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 27
4.1 General Electricity Market Information 27
4.2 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Energy Sector 33
4.3 Single Electricity Market of European Union 38
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 40
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economic Union 41
5 COMMONWEALTH INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 42
5.1 Market Overview 42
5.2 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue 43
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue 44
5.4 Future Development Trends 45
6 RUSSIA POWER MARKET 46
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 46
6.2 Wholesale Power Market Structure 49
6.2.1 Electricity Market 50
6.2.2 Capacity Market 52
6.3 Retail power market structure 54
6.3.1 Retail Companies 55
6.3.2 Electricity Producers that are not Participants of the Wholesale Market 56
6.3.3 Contract Structure of Retail Market 56
6.3.4 Pricing in the Retail Market 57
6.4 Electricity Consumption and Generation 60
6.5 Electricity Imports and Exports 62
6.6 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 64
6.7 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 65
7 RUSSIA PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 68
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia? 68
7.2 Russia Solar Resource Potential 69
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 71
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 72
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia 72
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 75
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 75
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 76
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 78
7.10 Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue 78
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Capacity and Revenue 79
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 80
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia 81
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia 81
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia Under Development 82
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 86
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA. SWOT ANALYSIS 87
8.1 Market Drivers 87
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 87
8.3 Market Constraints 87
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 87
8.5 SWOT Analysis 88
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET IN RUSSIA 91
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 91
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 95
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 98
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Technology Overview 98
10.2 Technology Trends 99
11 CIS COUNTRIES RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 102
11.1 RES Regulations and Directives of European Union (EU) affecting CIS countries 102
11.1.1 Precedent Regulations 102
11.1.2 EU 2030 Framework for Climate and Energy Policies 103
11.1.3 EU Energy Roadmap 2050 107
11.2 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Strategy for CIS Countries Developed by UN ECE 109
11.2.1 Development of Educational Activity and Personnel Training 110
11.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Mandatory Targets for CIS Countries 111
12 RUSSIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 113
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 113
12.2 Support Schemes 114
12.2.1 Government Decree № 1839 „On approval of a package of measures to stimulate production of power by generating facilities operating on the basis of renewable energy sources (RES)“ 114
12.2.2 Federal Law No. 35-FZ on the Electric Power Industry 115
12.3 Key Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia 115
12.4 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 116
12.5 Environmental Related Authorizations 116
12.5.1 Environment Protected Areas 117
12.5.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 118
12.6 Energy Law Authorizations 119
12.6.1 Power Generation Licensing 119
12.6.2 Grid Interconnection and Quota Limitations 120
12.6.3 Power Off-Take and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) 120
12.6.4 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 130
12.6.5 Green Reneable Energy Sources (RES) Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 132
12.7 Additional Incentives for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 132
12.8 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 132
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA 133
13.1 Government Stakeholders 133
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 134
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 135
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 144
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 147
16 REFERENCES 149
17 DISCLAIMER 152
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF CIS COUNTRIES AND RUSSIA 153
- Map 1: Where is Russia on the European Map 16
MAP 2: Russia Road Network 17
MAP 3: Russia Administrative Regions Map 18
MAP 4: The Synchronous Grids of Europe and CIS States 26
MAP 5: Interconnection Grid Map of Central-East Europe and CIS States 27
MAP 6: Existing and Planned High Voltage Power Lines of Russia and Interconnection with Neighbor Countries 45
MAP 7: Electricity Grid Map of Russia 46
MAP 8: Solar Resource Map of Russia 68
MAP 9: Solar Resource Map of Far East Regions of Russia 70
MAP 10: Environment Protected Areas in Russia 116
Map 11: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS countries 152
Map 12: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe and CIS Countries 153
Chart 1: Russia Real GDP Growth for the Period 2000 ÷ 2027 (including forecast) 23
Chart 2: Russia GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2002 ÷ 2027 (including forecast) 24
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 25
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2017 28
Chart 5: Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) Countries and Commonwealth Independent States (CIS), 2017 (in %) 30
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (EUR/MWh): 2008 - 2018; Renewable Market Watch 31
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 32
Chart 8: Net Power Generation Added Capacities in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW), Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Europe 33
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2017 34
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2017 (MW) 35
Chart 11: Installed Power Generating Capacity per Year (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2000 – 2017 36
Chart 12: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Generation Capacity in the EU 27 for 2017 (GW) 36
Chart 13: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 42
Chart 14: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 43
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 43
Chart 16: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 44
Chart 18: Structure of Russia Wholesale Power Market 47
Chart 19: Share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Russia in 2017 60
Chart 20: Russia Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2000 ÷ 2017 61
Chart 21: Russia Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2017 61
Chart 22: Russia Electricity Imports and Exports 2007 ÷ 2027 (in TWh) including forecast 62
Chart 23: Russia Targets for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) by 2030 (in %) 65
Chart 24: Cumulative (CAGR) Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 77
Chart 25: Cumulative (CAGR) Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 78
Chart 26: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 78
Chart 27: Annual Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in Millions USD) 2007 ÷ 2027, including forecast 79
Chart 28: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia 80
Chart 29: RUSEFF Structure 91
Chart 30: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 96
Chart 31: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/MW) 1990 ÷ 2018 99
Chart 32: Corporate Governance Structure of Russia Federal Grid Company 136
Chart 33: Districts (Service Area) Covered by Russian Grids JSC 138
Chart 34: Corporate Governance Structure of Inter Rao UES ОJSC 142
Table 1: Russia Electricity Prices for Business and Households 63
Table 2: Support Schemes for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Generation in the EU Countries and CIS Countries 67
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia for 2018 ÷ 2027 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 79
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia 80
Table 5: Database with Major Operational (Grid Connected), Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 82
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 95
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 95
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 96
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 97
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2018 100
Table 5: Limits on Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Installed Capacity in Russia by 2026 122
Table 6: Limits on Capital Costs for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia by 2027 124
Table 7: Fixed Operating Costs for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 125
Table 8: Local Content Procurement Requirements for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 125
Table 9: Minimum Capacity Factor for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Installations in Russia 129
Table 11: Feed-in-tariffs for Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Russia 130
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