Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market in Russia is expected to grow in the period 2021 - 2030. Government plans of Russia include development of solar PV sector ...
Update: June 2021
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 151
Report production №: RMWIN3492021184
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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2021 ÷ 2030. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece and Italy, the Russian Federation represents a challenging investment opportunity in the CIS region with a state renewable energy support scheme. The current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country is insignificant, but the number of fully permitted and ready to build projects will promptly increase in 2020 and next years. First MW scale photovoltaic power plants have been launched into commercial operation in 2016, 2017 and the first half of 2018, whilst pipeline of over 1,500 MW (1.5 GW) solar projects are progressing in different stages of the development process. Russia has launched at the end of September 2013 its first state support scheme for renewable energy with regulated capacity prices and 15 year PPA term, which is expected to enable further growth of the solar PV market in the Russian Federation.
Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Dmitry Medvedev signed on July 28, 2015 a very important regulatory document called "Decree № 1472-r". This document is fixing previous weak points from the Russian renewable energy law and is expected to create a more comfortable and attractive business environment for local and international clean energy investors and particularly those in solar power plants in Russia. At the beginning of March 2021, the Russian government has introduced a new net metering scheme for solar, wind and other renewable energy generators not exceeding 15 kW in size. Under the net metering regime, which is open to both private citizens and businesses, PV system owners will be allowed to sell surplus power to their respective power distributors at a specified price.
The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 145 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Russian solar PV market will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2018 and 2019 were challenging years for the world photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2020 and the next few years is limited. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:
- Solar resource potential in Russia
- Historical market data provided from 2010 to 2020 and forecasts until 2030
- Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
- Over 55 charts, tables and maps
- Overview of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) market development 2010 ÷ 2030
- Development scenario of Russia photovoltaic (solar PV) sector until 2030
- Major active and upcoming solar PV power plants in Russia
- Current market prices of fully permitted and operational solar PV projects
- Attractiveness indices for photovoltaic investments in Russia and CIS countries
- SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)
- Overview of Russia legal and regulatory framework for RES generation
- Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
- Project developers, EPC providers and Consultants in Russian
- Key organizations and stakeholders affecting the development of the photovoltaic sector in Russia
- Investment potential and opportunities
On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia 11
2.2 Russia Solar Resource Potential 11
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Russia 12
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia 13
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
3 RUSSIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
3.1 Basic Country Data 14
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
3.4 Taxes 21
3.4.1 VAT 22
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 22
4 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) POWER MARKET 24
4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
4.3 Single Electricity Market of the European Union (EU) 33
4.4 CIS States Common Electricity Market (CIS CEM) 35
4.5 Electricity Market Concept of Eurasian Economics Union (EAU) 36
5 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 37
5.1 Market Overview 37
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 38
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 40
5.4 Future Development Trends 40
6 RUSSIA POWER MARKET 42
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 42
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 44
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 48
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 50
7 RUSSIA PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 52
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia? 52
7.2 Russia Solar Resource Potential 53
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 54
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Russia 55
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Russia 56
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 57
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 58
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 59
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 60
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 62
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 64
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 64
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia 65
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Russia 66
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia Under Development 67
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 70
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN RUSSIA. SWOT ANALYSIS 71
8.1 Market Drivers 71
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 71
8.3 Market Constraints 72
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 72
8.5 SWOT Analysis 73
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN RUSSIA 77
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Russia 77
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Russia (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 82
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 87
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 87
10.2 Technology Trends 88
11 COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 90
12 RUSSIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 92
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 92
12.2 Support Schemes 93
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 93
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Russia in 2020 94
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia 96
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 97
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 97
12.7.1 Emerald Network and Environment Protected Areas 98
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 99
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 99
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 99
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 100
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 104
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 105
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 105
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 106
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN RUSSIA 107
13.1 Government Stakeholders 107
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 111
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 112
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 120
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 122
16 REFERENCES 124
17 DISCLAIMER 126
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS) AND RUSSIA 127
- Map 1: Where is Russia on the European Map 14
Map 2: Russia Road Network 15
Map 3: Russia Administrative Regions Map 17
Map 4: Russia Electricity Grids Network 43
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Russia 53
MAP 6: Russia Emerald Network of Environment Protected Areas Map 98
MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Russia 127
Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Russia 128
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 129
Chart 1: Russia Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 2: Russia GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 20
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 22
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) Central-East Europe (CEE) in 2020 25
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2020 (in %) 27
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in the Selected Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 29
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2020 (MW) 30
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2020 31
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) in 2020 (MW) 32
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2010 – 2020 in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 33
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 – 2020 37
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
Chart 16: Russia Power Market Structure 42
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Russia in 2020 45
Chart 18: Russia Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2010 – 2020 46
Chart 19: Russia Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2020 47
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Russia 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 49
Chart 21: Russia Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 51
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Russia 2010 – 2020 59
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Russia (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 64
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Russia by 2030 (in €) 66
Chart 27: Russian SEFF Structure 78
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 85
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2010 ÷ 2020 88
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Russia in 2020 112
Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 50
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) and Russia 52
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Russia for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2021 Update) 65
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Russia in 2020 66
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Russia 68
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 83
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 83
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia 84
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Russia (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 85
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2021 89