Ukraine Renewable Energy Power Market Outlook 2020÷2030 - Single User

The technical and economic potential for clean power generation from solar PV, wind, and bioenergy in Ukraine is considerable. Broader development of renewable energy would also play an essential role in existing policy goals of reducing the dependency on imported natural gas and diversification of the more secure energy supply. Ukrainian solar and wind power sectors scored remarkable progress between 2012 and 2020. However, further renewable energy deployment is crucial for the country's economic development and energy independence. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues, and future prospects. You will find more than 130 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Ukrainian renewable power market and will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it.

Bioenergy production from biomass and biogas, cultivation of energy crops are under implementation. The proper biomethane market development can replace the equivalent of about 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year. The clean energy and energy efficiency sector of Ukraine could attract up to € 70 billion in investment in 2030 by the International Finance Corporation‘s (IFC) estimation, which is also confirmed by the State Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving (SAEE). Ukraine scored a number 8 position rank among 104 countries for 2019 (up from 63 position rank in 2018) in the Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance Climatescope Emerging Market Global Outlook for attractiveness for green energy investments. This was an outstanding recognition of the country’s gradual efforts in the renewable energy transition.

With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2019 and 2020 were challenging years for the renewable industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2021 and the next few years is limited. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer opportunities for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:

• A brief overview of the Ukrainian political and economic environment
• Renewable resource potential in Ukraine (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine)
• Financial Model and Analysis of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Ukraine (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
• Over 55 charts, tables, and maps
• Overview of Ukrainian renewable (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) market development 2010 ÷ 2030
• Grid-connected renewable (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) power installations for 2019/2020
• Future market trends and planned renewable power (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) projects for 2020 ÷ 2030
• Current market prices of fully permitted and operational renewable power projects (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine)
• Ukrainian legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
• Key companies and competitive landscape in the renewable power sector (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine)
• Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
• SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 60 80 138 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Forecast Software and Methodology 11
1.2.1 Purpose 11
1.2.2 Description 12
1.2.3 Input data 12
1.2.4 Output data 13
1.2.5 Features 13
1.3 Limitations 13
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Renewable Power Market in Ukraine 14
2.2 Ukraine Renewable Resource Potential 15
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 15
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Renewable Power Market Development in Ukraine 15
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 16
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Ukraine 16
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 16
3 UKRAINE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
3.1 Basic Country Data 17
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 22
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 22
3.4 Taxes 25
3.4.1 VAT 26
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 26
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 27
4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 28
4.1 General Electricity Market information 28
4.2 Renewables in Energy Sector 34
4.3 Single Electricity Market 37
5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) RENEWABLE POWER MARKET 40
5.1 Market Overview 40
5.2 Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Revenue 41
5.3 Annual Installed Renewable Power Capacity 43
5.4 Future Development Trends 43
6 UKRAINE POWER MARKET 45
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 45
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 47
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 51
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 52
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 53
7 UKRAINE RENEWABLE POWER MARKET 55
7.1 Why Invest in Renewable Power in Ukraine? 55
7.2 Ukraine Renewable Resource Potential 56
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 57
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Renewable Power Projects in Ukraine 58
7.5 Overview of Renewable Power Market in Ukraine 59
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 61
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 61
7.8 Competitive Environment in Renewable Power Market 63
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Renewable Power Market 64
7.10 Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity and Revenue 66
7.11 Annual Installed Renewable Power Capacity 67
7.12 Market Prices for Renewable Power Projects in Ukraine in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 68
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Renewable Power Plants (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine 69
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Renewable Power in Ukraine 70
7.15 Key Renewable Power Projects (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine Under Development 71
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 74
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF RENEWABLE POWER MARKET IN UKRAINE. SWOT ANALYSIS 75
8.1 Market Drivers 75
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 75
8.3 Market Constraints 76
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 76
8.5 SWOT Analysis 77
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE POWER MARKET IN UKRAINE 81
9.1 Financing Options of Renewable Power Projects in Ukraine 81
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Ukraine (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 86
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 91
10.1 Renewable Technologies Overview 91
10.2 Technology Trends 92
11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 94
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 94
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 94
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 95
12 UKRAINE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 96
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 96
12.2 Support Schemes 97
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 97
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Ukraine in 2019 and 2020 98
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Renewable Power Plants (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine 101
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 102
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 102
12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 102
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 104
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 104
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 104
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 105
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 106
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 108
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 109
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 109
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 110
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING RENEWABLE POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE 111
13.1 Government Stakeholders 111
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 115
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 116
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 124
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 126
16 REFERENCES 128
17 DISCLAIMER 130
APPENDIX I. RENEWABLE RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND UKRAINE 126

Map 1: Where is Ukraine on the European Map 18
Map 2: Ukraine Road Network 19
Map 3: Ukraine Administrative Regions Map 21
Map 4: Ukraine Electricity Grids Network 46
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 56
MAP 6: Ukraine Natura 2000 Areas Map 103
MAP 7: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 131
Map 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 132
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 133
Map 10: Wind Resource Potential in Ukraine 134
Map 11: Bioenergy (Waste, Biomass, Biogas, Biomethane) Potential in Ukraine 135
Map 12: Hydro Power Potential in Ukraine 136
Map 13: Marine Power Potential in Ukraine 137
Map 14: Geothermal Potential in Ukraine 138

Chart 1: Ukraine Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 22
Chart 2: Ukraine GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 23
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 25
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2019 28
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2019 (in %) 30
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 31
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 32
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2019 (MW) 33
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2019 34
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2019 (MW) 35
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2009 – 2019 in the EU 36
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Renewable Power Technologies (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in CEE & SEE Countries 2009 – 2019, EPO PATSTAT 39
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in MW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 40
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Renewable Power (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 41
Chart 15: Annual Installed Renewable Power Capacity (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in MW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 42
Chart 16: Ukraine Power Market Structure 44
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Ukraine in 2019 47
Chart 18: Ukraine Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 48
Chart 19: Ukraine Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2019 49
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Ukraine 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 51
Chart 21: Ukraine Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 53
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Renewable Technologies in Ukraine 2009 – 2019, EPO PATSTAT 62
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Capacity (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 65
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Renewable Power Plants (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 66
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Renewable Power Plants (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 67
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Renewable Technologies (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine by 2030 (in €) 69
Chart 27: Ukrainian SEFF Structure 81
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 88
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2010 ÷ 2020 91
Chart 30: Wind Turbines Price Evolution (€/MW) 2010 ÷ 2020 91
Chart 31: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Ukraine in 2019 115

Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 53
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Ukraine 55
Table 3: Market Prices for Renewable Projects (Solar, Wind, Bioenergy, Hydropower, Geothermal, Marine) in Ukraine for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 69
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Ukraine in 2020 70
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Ukraine 72
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 87
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 87
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 88
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 89
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2020 93