Ukraine Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2021÷2030 - Single User

This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country. Cumulative installed PV capacity in the country was only 3MW in 2010, but grew up to 140 MW in 2011. Between 2018 and 2020 the solar photovoltaic capacity in Ukraine more than tripled and exceeded 7,000MW (7GW) at the end of 2020, making Ukraine one of the fastest-growing photovoltaic markets in the world. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Ukrainian photovoltaic market and will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) will impact it.

The technical and economic potential for clean power generation from solar PV, wind, and bioenergy in Ukraine is considerable. Broader development of renewable energy would also play an essential role in existing policy goals of reducing the dependency on imported natural gas and diversification of the more secure energy supply. Ukrainian solar and wind power sectors scored remarkable progress between 2012 and 2020. However, further renewable energy deployment is crucial for the country's economic development and energy independence.

With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2020 was a challenging year for the photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2021 and the next few years is limited. Significant progress achieved in photovoltaic sector development has made Ukraine an undoubted industry leader among the CIS countries by the end of February 2014. After that, political turmoil in Ukraine changed the picture in the CIS region, and a more complex overview of the solar PV sector in the country is necessary. A fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but not limited to:

• A brief overview of the Ukrainian political and economic environment
• Solar resource potential in Ukraine
• Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Ukraine (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
• Over 55 charts, tables and maps
• Overview of Ukrainian solar photovoltaic market development 2010 ÷ 2030
• Grid-connected photovoltaic power installations for 2020/2021
• Future market trends and planned solar photovoltaic projects for 2020 ÷ 2030
• Current market prices of fully permitted and operational solar photovoltaic projects
• Ukrainian legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
• Key companies and competitive landscape in the solar photovoltaic sector
• Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
• SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report, just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Ukraine 11
2.2 Ukraine Solar Resource Potential 11
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Ukraine 12
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Ukraine 13
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
3 UKRAINE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
3.1 Basic Country Data 14
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
3.4 Taxes 21
3.4.1 VAT 22
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 24
4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
4.3 Single Electricity Market 33
5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 36
5.1 Market Overview 36
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 37
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 39
5.4 Future Development Trends 39
6 UKRAINE POWER MARKET 41
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 41
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 43
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 47
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 48
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 49
7 UKRAINE PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 51
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Ukraine? 51
7.2 Ukraine Solar Resource Potential 52
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 53
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Ukraine 54
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Ukraine 55
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 56
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 57
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 58
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 59
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 61
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 63
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Ukraine in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 63
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Ukraine 64
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Ukraine 65
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Ukraine Under Development 66
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 69
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN UKRAINE. SWOT ANALYSIS 70
8.1 Market Drivers 70
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 70
8.3 Market Constraints 71
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 71
8.5 SWOT Analysis 72
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN UKRAINE 76
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Ukraine 76
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Ukraine (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 81
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 86
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 86
10.2 Technology Trends 87
11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 89
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 89
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 89
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 90
12 UKRAINE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 91
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 91
12.2 Support Schemes 92
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 92
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Ukraine in 2020 93
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Ukraine 96
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 97
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 97
12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 98
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 99
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 99
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation 99
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 100
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 103
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 104
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 104
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 105
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE 106
13.1 Government Stakeholders 106
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 110
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 111
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 119
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 121
16 REFERENCES 123
17 DISCLAIMER 125
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND UKRAINE 126

Map 1: Where is Ukraine on the European Map 14
Map 2: Ukraine Road Network 15
Map 3: Ukraine Administrative Regions Map 17
Map 4: Ukraine Electricity Grids Network 42
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 52
MAP 7: Ukraine Natura 2000 Areas Map 98
MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 126
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Ukraine 127
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 128

Chart 1: Ukraine Real GDP Growth for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 2: Ukraine GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2010 ÷ 2030 in % (including forecast) 20
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 22
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2020 25
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-28 in 2020 (in %) 27
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2010 – 2020; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2020 and 2030 (in GW) 29
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2020 (MW) 30
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2020 31
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 28 in 2020 (MW) 32
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2010 – 2020 in the EU 33
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2010 – 2020 36
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 37
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 38
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 39
Chart 16: Ukraine Power Market Structure 41
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Ukraine in 2020 44
Chart 18: Ukraine Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2009 ÷ 2019 45
Chart 19: Ukraine Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2020 46
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Ukraine 2010 ÷ 2030 (in million kWh) including forecast 48
Chart 21: Ukraine Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 50
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Ukraine 2010 – 2020, EPO PATSTAT 58
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Ukraine (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 61
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Ukraine (in Millions EUR) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 62
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Ukraine (in MW) 2010 ÷ 2030, including forecast 63
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Ukraine by 2030 (in €) 65
Chart 27: Ukrainian SEFF Structure 77
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 84
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2010 ÷ 2020 87
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Ukraine in 2020 111

Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Ukraine 51
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Ukraine for 2020 ÷ 2030 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2020 Update) 64
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Ukraine in 2021 65
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Ukraine 67
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 82
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 82
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine 83
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Ukraine (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 84
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2021 88