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Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2023 - 2032

Poland Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2023÷2032 - Single User

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This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the period 2023 - 2032...

Update: January 2023
Format: 1 file(s) (PDF report) in English language and 1 file(s) in MS Excel with data from charts and tables
Author: Renewable Market WatchTM
Pages: 124
Report production №:
RMWIN349202385
Delivery:
Up to 24 hours by e-mail
Subscription: In the report price is included a subscription for 1 year period with up to 4 quarterly updates

  • This market report offers an incisive and reliable overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next 10 years period 2023 ÷ 2032. Poland is a very interesting market due to its political and economic stability, high prices for electricity and heavy dependence on coal and lignite in power generation, which should be changed to comply with EU renewable policy. In view of recent cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria Romania and Italy, Poland represents a stable investment environment in Central-East Europe.

    The current cumulative installed PV capacity in the country by the end of Q3 2023 stays exceeds 18,000 MW (18 GW) and scored impressive growth in the past 4 years, but this represents the potential for further growth if the Polish government finds a suitable balance for its several times changed in recent years renewable energy policy. By geographical distribution, the largest share of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Poland belongs to the Lublin province, with more than 10 % of all installations in the country. 

    What is the economics of solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Poland? Answers you will find enclosed in the report detailed Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)

    The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Polish photovoltaic (solar PV) market will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) recovery, the war in Ukraine and the recent intention of the EU Commission to reduce by two-thirds this year gas import from Russia will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2022 was a challenging year for the photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2023 and the next years is limited. A fast-changing market environment with falling module prices requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but are not limited to:

    • Overview of the Polish political and economic environment
    • Solar resource potential in Poland
    • Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
    • Over 55 charts, tables and maps
    • Overview of Polish Photovoltaic Market Development 2012 ÷ 2032
    • Grid-connected photovoltaic power installations for 2022/2023
    • Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2023 ÷ 2032
    • Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
    • Polish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
    • Key companies and competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector
    • Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
    • SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

    On the next pages, you will see the full table of content of this report. To order this report just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
    FOREWORD 8
    1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
    1.1 Research Methodology 9
    1.2 Forecast Software and Methodology 13
    1.2 Limitations 13
    2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14
    2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland 14
    2.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential 14
    2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 15
    2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Poland 15
    2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 15
    2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland 16
    2.7 Market Forecast Summary 16
    3 POLAND POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
    3.1 Basic Country Data 17
    3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 21
    3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 21
    3.4 Taxes 24
    3.4.1 VAT 25
    3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 25
    3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 26
    4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 27
    4.1 General Electricity Market information 27
    4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 33
    4.3 Single Electricity Market 36
    5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 39
    5.1 Market Overview 39
    5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 40
    5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 42
    5.4 Future Development Trends 42
    6 POLAND POWER MARKET 44
    6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 44
    6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 46
    6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 50
    6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 51
    6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 52
    7 POLAND PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 54
    7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland? 54
    7.2 Poland Solar Resource Potential 55
    7.3 Licensing Period Duration 56
    7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Poland 57
    7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Poland 58
    7.6 Market Structure Analysis 59
    7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 60
    7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 61
    7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 62
    7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 64
    7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 66
    7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 66
    7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland 67
    7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Poland 68
    7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland Under Development 69
    7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 72
    8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND. SWOT ANALYSIS 73
    8.1 Market Drivers 73
    8.2 Market Drivers Explained 73
    8.3 Market Constraints 74
    8.4 Market Constraints Explained 74
    8.5 SWOT Analysis 75
    9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN POLAND 79
    9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Poland 79
    9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 10 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Poland (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 84
    10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 89
    10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 89
    10.2 Technology Trends 90
    11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 92
    11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 92
    11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 92
    11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 93
    12 POLAND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 94
    12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 94
    12.2 Support Schemes 95
    12.3 Green Certificates Trading 95
    12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Poland in 2019 and 2020 96
    12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland 99
    12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 100
    12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 100
    12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 100
    12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 102
    12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 102
    12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 102
    12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 103
    12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 104
    12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 106
    12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 107
    12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 107
    12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 108
    13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN POLAND 109
    13.1 Government Stakeholders 109
    13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 113
    13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 114
    14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 122
    15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 124
    16 REFERENCES 126
    17 DISCLAIMER 128
    APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND POLAND 129

  • Map 1: Where is Poland on the European Map 17
    Map 2: Poland Road Network 18
    Map 3: Poland Administrative Regions Map 20
    Map 4: Poland Electricity Grids Network 45
    Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 55
    MAP 7: Poland Natura 2000 Areas Map 101
    MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 129
    Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Poland 130
    Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 131

    Chart 1: Poland Real GDP Growth for the Period 2012 ÷ 2032 in % (including forecast) 22
    Chart 2: Poland GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2012 ÷ 2032 in % (including forecast) 23
    Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 25
    Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2021 28
    Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-27 in 2022 (in %) 30
    Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2012 – 2022; Renewable Market WatchTM 31
    Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2030 (in GW) 32
    Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2022 (MW) 33
    Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2022 34
    Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 27 in 2022 (MW) 35
    Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2012 – 2022 in the EU 36
    Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2012 – 2022, EPO PATSTAT 39
    Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 40
    Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 41
    Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 42
    Chart 16: Poland Power Market Structure 44
    Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Poland in 2022 47
    Chart 18: Poland Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2012 ÷ 2032 48
    Chart 19: Poland Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2022 49
    Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Poland 2012 ÷ 2032 (in million kWh) including forecast 51
    Chart 21: Poland Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 53
    Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Poland 2012 – 2022, EPO PATSTAT 61
    Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 64
    Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in Millions EUR) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 65
    Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Poland (in MW) 2012 ÷ 2032, including forecast 66
    Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Poland by 2030 (in €) 68
    Chart 27: Polish SEFF Structure 80
    Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 87
    Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2002 ÷ 2022 90
    Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Poland in 2022 114

    Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 52
    Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Poland 54
    Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland for 2023 ÷ 2032 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2023 Update) 67
    Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Poland in 2023 68
    Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Poland 70
    Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 85
    Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 85
    Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland 86
    Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Poland (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 87
    Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2023 91

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