Türkiye Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2024÷2033 - Single User

This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the photovoltaic sector of the country for the next long-term period, 2024 ÷ 2033. Türkiye has the sixth-largest electricity market in Europe and one of the fastest-growing in the world. Given cuts in FIT’s announced in Germany, Spain, France, UK, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Italy after 2012, Türkiye represents an exciting investment environment in South-East Europe with excellent solar irradiation.

Cumulative installed solar PV capacity in MW in the country increased more than 20-fold from 2015 to 2023 despite political uncertainty. The Turkish market has excellent chances to exceed 18 GW cumulative installed capacity in the next 5 years.

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Turkish photovoltaic market and will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) recovery, the war in Ukraine and the recent intention of the EU Commission to reduce by two-thirds this year gas import from Russia will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2023 was a challenging year for the photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2024 and the next years is limited. A fast-changing market environment with falling module prices requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report include:

• Overview of the Turkish political and economic environment
• Solar resource potential in Türkiye
• Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Türkiye (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
• Over 55 charts, tables and maps
• Overview of Turkish Photovoltaic Market Development 2013 ÷ 2033
• Grid-connected photovoltaic installations
• Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2024 ÷ 2033
• Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
• Turkish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
• Key companies and competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector
• Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
• SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

On the next pages, you will see the full table of contents of this report. To order this report, click "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Limitations 10
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Türkiye 11
2.2 Türkiye Solar Resource Potential 11
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 12
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Türkiye 12
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 12
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Türkiye 13
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 13
3 TÜRKIYE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 14
3.1 Basic Country Data 14
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 18
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 18
3.4 Taxes 21
3.4.1 VAT 22
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 22
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 23
4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 24
4.1 General Electricity Market information 24
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 30
4.3 Single Electricity Market 33
5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 36
5.1 Market Overview 36
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 37
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 39
5.4 Future Development Trends 39
6 TÜRKIYE POWER MARKET 41
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 41
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 43
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 47
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 48
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 49
7 TÜRKIYE PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 51
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in TÜRKIYE? 51
7.2 TÜRKIYE Solar Resource Potential 52
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 53
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in TÜRKIYE 54
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in TÜRKIYE 55
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 56
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 57
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 58
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 59
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 61
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 63
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in TÜRKIYE in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 63
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in TÜRKIYE 64
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in TÜRKIYE 65
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in TÜRKIYE Under Development 66
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 69
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF THE PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN TÜRKIYE. SWOT ANALYSIS 70
8.1 Market Drivers 70
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 70
8.3 Market Constraints 71
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 71
8.5 SWOT Analysis 72
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN TÜRKIYE 76
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in TÜRKIYE 76
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 5 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in TÜRKIYE (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 81
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 86
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 86
10.2 Technology Trends 87
11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 89
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 89
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 89
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 90
12 TÜRKIYE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 91
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 91
12.2 Support Schemes 92
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 92
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in TÜRKIYE in 2020 93
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in TÜRKIYE 96
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 97
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 97
12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 98
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 99
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 99
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 99
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 100
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 102
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 103
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 104
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 104
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 105
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN TÜRKIYE 106
13.1 Government Stakeholders 106
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 110
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 111
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 119
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 121
16 REFERENCES 123
17 DISCLAIMER 125
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND TÜRKIYE 126

Map 1: Where is Türkiye on the European Map 14
Map 2: Türkiye Road Network 15
Map 3: Türkiye Administrative Regions Map 17
Map 4: Türkiye Electricity Grids Network 42
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Türkiye 52
MAP 7: Türkiye Natura 2000 Areas Map 98
MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Türkiye 126
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Türkiye 127
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 128

Chart 1: Türkiye Real GDP Growth for the Period 2013 ÷ 2033 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 2: Türkiye GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2013 ÷ 2033 in % (including forecast) 20
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 22
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2023 25
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-27 in 2023 (in %) 27
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2013 – 2023; Renewable Market WatchTM 28
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2023 and 2033 (in GW) 29
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2023 (MW) 30
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2023 31
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 27 in 2023 (MW) 32
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2013 – 2023 in the EU 33
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2013 – 2023 36
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 37
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 38
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 39
Chart 16: Türkiye Power Market Structure 41
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Türkiye in 2023 44
Chart 18: Türkiye Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2013 – 2023 45
Chart 19: Türkiye Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2023 46
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Türkiye 2013 ÷ 2033 (in million kWh) including forecast 48
Chart 21: Türkiye Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2033 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 50
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Türkiye 2013 – 2023 58
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Türkiye (in MW) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 61
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Türkiye (in Millions EUR) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 62
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Türkiye (in MW) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 63
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Türkiye by 2033 (in €) 65
Chart 27: Turkish SEFF Structure 77
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 84
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2003 ÷ 2023 87
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Türkiye in 2023 111

Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 49
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Türkiye 51
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Türkiye for 2024 ÷ 2033 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2024 Update) 64
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Türkiye in 2024 65
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Türkiye 67
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 82
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Türkiye (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 82
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 83
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Türkiye (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 84
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2024 88