Türkiye Wind Power Market Outlook 2024÷2033 - Single User

This market report offers an incisive and reliable long-term overview of the wind sector of the country for the next long period, 2024 ÷ 2033. In view of recent cuts in FITs announced in Germany, Spain, France, the UK, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Italy, Türkiye represents a stable investment environment in South-East Europe with clear rules and green certificates support scheme. The country's current cumulative installed wind capacity is growing fast, and Türkiye will be one of the best performers amongst SEE countries between 2012 and 2024.

Wind power in the country almost doubled, from 6,516MW (6.52 GW) in 2017 to 12,000MW (12 GW) in 2023. The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique, in-depth analysis of the Turkish wind market. You will receive an overview of how the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) recovery, the war in Ukraine, and the recent intention of the EU Commission to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights to help investors in their decision-making process. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but are not limited to:

• Overview of the Turkish political and economic environment (PEST analysis)
• Wind resource potential in Türkiye
• Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
• Over 55 charts, tables and maps
• Overview of Turkish Wind Market Development 2013 ÷ 2033
• Grid-connected wind power installations
• Future market trends and planned wind projects for 2024 ÷ 2033
• Market prices of fully permitted and operational wind projects
• Turkish legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
• Key companies and competitive landscape in the wind sector
• Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
• SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

On the next pages, you will see the full table of contents of this report. To order this report, just click on the button "ADD TO CART". If you have any other questions, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 7
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 8
1.1 Research Methodology 8
1.2 Limitations 9
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Wind Power Market in Turkey 10
2.2 Turkey Wind Resource Potential 10
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 11
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Wind Power Market Development in Turkey 11
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 11
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Turkey 12
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 12
3 TURKEY POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 13
3.1 Basic Country Data 13
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 17
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 17
3.4 Taxes 20
3.4.1 VAT 21
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 21
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 22
4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 23
4.1 General Electricity Market information 23
4.2 Wind Power in the Energy Sector 29
4.3 Single Electricity Market 32
5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) WIND POWER MARKET 35
5.1 Market Overview 35
5.2 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 36
5.3 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 38
5.4 Future Development Trends 38
6 TURKEY POWER MARKET 40
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 40
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 42
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 46
6.4 Electricity Prices for Business and Households 47
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 48
7 TURKEY WIND POWER MARKET 50
7.1 Why Invest in Wind Power in Turkey? 50
7.2 Turkey Wind Resource Potential 51
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 52
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Wind Power Projects in Turkey 53
7.5 Overview of Wind Power Market in Turkey 54
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 55
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 56
7.8 Competitive Environment in Wind Power Market 57
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Wind Power Market 58
7.10 Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity and Revenue 60
7.11 Annual Installed Wind Capacity 62
7.12 Market Prices for Wind Power Projects in Turkey in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 62
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Turkey 63
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power in Turkey 64
7.15 Key Wind Power Projects in Turkey Under Development 65
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 68
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF WIND MARKET IN TURKEY. SWOT ANALYSIS 69
8.1 Market Drivers 69
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 69
8.3 Market Constraints 70
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 70
8.5 SWOT Analysis 71
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF WIND MARKET IN TURKEY 75
9.1 Financing Options of Wind Power Projects in Turkey 75
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Wind Power Plant investment in Turkey (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 80
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 85
10.1 Wind Technology Overview 85
10.2 Technology Trends 86
11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 88
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 88
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 88
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 89
12 TURKEY RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 90
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 90
12.2 Support Schemes 91
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 91
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Turkey in 2020 92
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Wind Power Plants in Turkey 95
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction Related Authorizations 96
12.7 Environmental Related Authorizations 96
12.7.1 Emerald Network and Environment Protected Areas 97
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 98
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 98
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 1 MW 98
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 99
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 101
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 102
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 103
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 103
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 104
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING WIND POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY 105
13.1 Government Stakeholders 105
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 109
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSO’s) 110
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 118
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 120
16 REFERENCES 122
17 DISCLAIMER 124
APPENDIX I. WIND RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND TURKEY 125

Map 1: Where is Türkiye on the European Map 13
Map 2: Türkiye Road Network 14
Map 3: Türkiye Administrative Regions Map 16
Map 4: Türkiye Electricity Grids Network 41
Map 5: Türkiye Wind Resource Map at 80 m.a.g.l. 51
MAP 6: Türkiye Network of Environment Protected Areas Map 97
MAP 7: Global Mean Wind Speed at 80 m.a.g.l. 125
Map 8: European Wind Atlas 126
Map 9: Unrestricted technical potential for onshore wind energy in the EU countries up to 2030, based on estimated 80 m.a.g.l average wind speeds (incl. Türkiye) 127

Chart 1: Türkiye Real GDP Growth for the Period 2013 ÷ 2033 in % (including forecast) 18
Chart 2: Türkiye GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2013 ÷ 2033 in % (including forecast) 19
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 21
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2023 24
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-27 in 2023 (in %) 26
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2013 – 2023; Renewable Market WatchTM 27
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2023 and 2033 (in GW) 28
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2023 (MW) 29
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2023 30
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 27 in 2023 (MW) 31
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2013 – 2023 in the EU 32
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2013 – 2023 35
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 36
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 37
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 38
Chart 16: Türkiye Power Market Structure 40
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Türkiye in 2023 43
Chart 18: Türkiye Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2013 – 2023 44
Chart 19: Türkiye Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2023 45
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Türkiye 2013 ÷ 2033 (in million kWh) including forecast 47
Chart 21: Türkiye Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2023 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 49
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Wind Technologies in Türkiye 2013 – 2023, EPO PATSTAT 57
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Türkiye (in MW) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 60
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Wind Power Plants in Türkiye (in Millions EUR) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 61
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Wind Power Plants in Türkiye (in MW) 2013 ÷ 2033, including forecast 62
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Wind Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Türkiye by 2033 (in €) 64
Chart 27: Turkish SEFF Structure 76
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 83
Chart 29: Wind Turbine Price Evolution (€/kW) 2013 ÷ 2023 86
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Türkiye in 2023 110

Table 1: Electricity Prices for Business and Households 48
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Türkiye 50
Table 3: Market Prices for Wind Projects in Türkiye for 2024 ÷ 2033 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2024 Update) 63
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Wind Power Plant in Türkiye in 2024 64
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Wind Projects in Türkiye 66
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 81
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 81
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 5 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye 82
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Wind Power Plant Investment in Türkiye (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 83
Table 10: Wind Turbine Price Trend in 2024 87