News & Analysis

In most of the countries of this region, photovoltaic energy in 80’s and 90’s was limited only to very small rooftop on-grid and off-grid installations. Due to the high photovoltaic technology equipment costs, these installations by late 90’s have been with a capacity between 1 KWp and 30 KWp. However, this situation started to change in 2000 for 2 main reasons. The first reason is that governments in the CEE and SEE countries introduced a number of measures to support alternative energy producers to meet the EU’s targets for higher usage of renewables. National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP’s) have been developed for each of EU member countries setting mandatory targets with Directive 2009/28/EC for renewable energy usage as a share of final energy consumption by 2020. The second reason is falling photovoltaic (solar PV) module and inverter prices since 2009, which led turn-key installation cost for PV systems from 4.3 EUR/Wp in 2008 to approximately 1.5 EUR/Wp in 2013. Consequences of the continued financial crisis in the EU zone are pressing policy-makers to cut costs, which could negatively affect the photovoltaic sector, which is dependent on government incentives and stable regulatory framework and laws according to CEE & SEE Countries Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market Outlook 2014 – 2025

The maturing photovoltaic markets in Germany, Spain, France, Italy and subsidy cuts allowed investors to look for new opportunities in Central-Eastern (CEE) and South-Eastern European (SEE) nations after 2009.

Our forecast for photovoltaic (solar PV) sector in CEE and SEE countries remains positive. Best developed markets are Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Ukraine. However, subsidy cuts reduced development in some of these countries. On the other side, rising electricity prices for industry and households leave room for rooftop PV systems market for own consumption and surplus generation.

Next wave markets with short and medium-term potential for development in 2014/2015 are Romania, Turkey, Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia. Investors should be cautious regarding green certificates (GCs) cuts in Romania and their cooling effect on this country’s PV market.

The Ukrainian revolution of February 2014 took place after a series of violent events in the capital of Kiev, which finally have resulted with the forced resignation of the then-President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who escaped and found political protection in Russia. This was immediately followed by a series of changes in quick succession in Ukraine’s sociopolitical system, including the installation of a new interim government, the restoration of an older version of the constitution, and the call to immediate presidential elections, which were held on 25 May 2014 and won by Petro Poroshenko.

After that political turmoil in Ukraine was further resulted in the annexation of Crimea by Russia with support of Russian military forces in March and April 2014. This was a heavy strike for the Ukrainian photovoltaic industry because approximately 50 % of all installed solar capacity in Ukraine is located in Crimea. All local and foreign investors immediately stopped their activities at Ukrainian PV market in such an insecure environment.  On 2 April 2014 Energorynok has officially stopped purchasing electricity from photovoltaic power plants located in Crimea because they have been treated as part of the Russian territory.

We expect market drivers by the end of 2014 to be projects with capacity mainly in the range between 1 MWp to 20 MWp. More information about these promising markets you may read here: CEE & SEE Countries Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market Outlook 2014 – 2025