News & Analysis

In CIS countries, the solar PV market scored a remarkable 168 % CAGR growth of PV installations in 2013 compared to 2012. Significant progress achieved in photovoltaic sector development has made Ukraine an undoubted industry leader among the CIS countries by the end of February 2014. After that political turmoil in Ukraine changed the political and economic picture in the CIS region. Most of investors and developers preferred to put on hold or give up from their photovoltaic projects. Due to political turmoil in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea by Russia in February 2014, we have to point out that 2014 was vulnerable for the photovoltaic sector in CIS countries, which was mostly dependent on the solar power plant developments in Ukraine. The future of the solar PV sector in Ukraine remains unstable and cloudy, whilst Kazakhstan and Russia are expected to contribute to CIS countries solar PV sector growth in 2015.

Consequences of the continued financial crisis in the EU zone pressed policy-makers to cut costs, which negatively affected the photovoltaic sector, dependent on government incentives and stable regulatory framework and laws. This pressure in EU zone combined with maturing photovoltaic markets in Germany, Spain, France, Italy and subsidy cuts in Eastern European countries redirected some investors to explore opportunities in CIS states according to CIS Countries Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market Outlook 2015 – 2020

The only well-developed PV market in CIS region by February 2014 was Ukraine. Total cumulative photovoltaic installations in CIS countries have reached less than 1 GW at the end of 2014, a minimal share of the global cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity of 184 GW in 2014. However, the situation in Ukraine dramatically changed. The Ukrainian revolution of February 2014 took place after a series of violent events in the capital of Kyiv, which finally have resulted with the forced resignation of the then-President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who escaped and found political protection in Russia. This was immediately followed by a series of changes in quick succession in Ukraine’s sociopolitical system, including the installation of a new interim government, the restoration of an older version of the constitution, and the call to immediate presidential elections, which were held on 25 May 2014 and won by Petro Poroshenko.

After that political turmoil in Ukraine was further resulted in the annexation of Crimea by Russia with support of Russian military forces in March and April 2014. This was a heavy strike for the Ukrainian photovoltaic industry, because approximately 50 % of all installed solar capacity in Ukraine is located in Crimea, and because all local and foreign investors stopped their activities immediately at Ukrainian PV market in such uncertain environment.  On 2 April 2014 Energorynok has officially stopped purchasing electricity from photovoltaic power plants located in Crimea because they have been treated as part of the Russian territory.

The current levels of dependence on fossil fuels, the need of reducing the carbon emissions associated with energy use and the prospects of developing a new and extremely innovative technology sector in CIS countries, make photovoltaic energy increasingly attractive.

Nevertheless of political uncertainty at the moment, our forecast for the growth of photovoltaic (solar PV) power sector in CIS countries remains moderately positive. However, the region’s political and economic vulnerability should not be underestimated, and all these processes have to be closely watched. The solar PV market in Ukraine will be stalling in 2015. Next wave markets besides Ukraine with short and medium-term potential for development in 2015 are Kazakhstan and Russia. More information about these promising markets you may read here: CIS Countries Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Market Outlook 2015 – 2020