Bulgaria Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Market Outlook 2025÷2034

Bulgaria is situated in the South-Eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula. The country’s population is 7.284 million people, and its territory spans 110,912 sq.km. Bulgaria borders Greece and Turkey to the South, and North Macedonia and Serbia – to the West. The Danube River to the North is our natural border with Romania; the Black Sea is situated to the East. Bulgaria is in the centre of a region, which is undergoing a dynamic transition. Within 500 km of our capital city, Sofia (1.4 million people), a population of over 90 million lives in 9 countries that have recently embarked on their way to a market economy. This is a large market with rapidly increasing purchasing power.

In the last few years, Bulgaria has been the focus of the investors’ interest. The political stability and predictability due to the NATO membership and the EU accession, the stable economic perspective and the growing credit rating of the country and its institutions were only some of the elements attracting the investors’ interest. External investors have been attracted by rapidly developing national industry, highly skilled workforce and significant new market.

The development of operational solar PV power plants in Bulgaria started with very moderate steps in 2007 but progressed at a fast pace after the second half of 2010. At the end of 2024, the cumulative installed solar PV capacity in Bulgaria exceeded 4,400 MW (4.4 GW). Several large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects with a capacity above 50 MW have been announced in Bulgaria after 2022, and these projects will be built between 2025 and 2028. Recent legislative changes in Bulgaria aim to facilitate the permitting process for solar power plants.

The report provides a complete picture of the market situation, dynamics, current issues and future prospects. You will find more than 120 pages of valuable information in this unique in-depth analysis of the Bulgarian photovoltaic market will receive an overview of how the military conflict in Ukraine and the European Union’s efforts to achieve a significant reduction of Russian gas and other energy commodities import will impact it. With comprehensive market data, this report brings clear and concise insights, to help investors in their decision-making process. As 2023 and 2024 were challenging years for the photovoltaic industry, the time for making the right decisions during 2025 and the next few years is limited. The fast-changing market environment requires relevant and accurate information. For your convenience, we offer the opportunity for orders with customized report content. Reasons to buy this market report are, but are not limited to:

• Overview of the Bulgarian political and economic environment
• Solar resource potential in Bulgaria
• Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Bulgaria (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, etc.)
• Over 55 charts, tables and maps
• Overview of Bulgarian Photovoltaic Market Development 2014 ÷ 2034
• Grid-connected photovoltaic installations
• Future market trends and planned photovoltaic projects for 2025 ÷ 2034
• Market prices of fully permitted and operational photovoltaic projects
• Bulgarian legal and energy regulatory framework for renewable projects
• Key companies and competitive landscape in the photovoltaic sector
• Review of most relevant financing and supporting incentives
• SWOT Analysis (detailed in 5 pages)

On the next pages, you will see the full table of contents of this report. To order this report click on the button “ADD TO CART”. If you have any other questions, please do not hesitate to call us on ++44 203 807 00 79 or write an e-mail to orders@renewablemarketwatch.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3
FOREWORD 8
1 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 9
1.1 Research Methodology 9
1.2 Forecast Software and Methodology 13
1.2 Limitations 13
2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14
2.1 Historical and Current Development Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Bulgaria 14
2.2 Bulgaria Solar Resource Potential 14
2.3 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Policies and Targets 15
2.4 Key Stakeholders Affecting Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market Development in Bulgaria 15
2.5 Market Drivers and Constraints 15
2.6 Recent and Pending Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Bulgaria 16
2.7 Market Forecast Summary 16
3 BULGARIA POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. PEST ANALYSIS 17
3.1 Basic Country Data 17
3.2 Political Climate and Ruling Party 21
3.3 GDP and Economic Growth 21
3.4 Taxes 24
3.4.1 VAT 25
3.4.2 Income and Corporate Taxes 25
3.4.3 Exemption of excise duty 26
4 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) POWER MARKET 27
4.1 General Electricity Market information 27
4.2 Photovoltaics (Solar PV) in Energy Sector 33
4.3 Single Electricity Market 36
5 CENTRAL-EAST EUROPE (CEE) AND SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE) PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 39
5.1 Market Overview 39
5.2 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 40
5.3 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 42
5.4 Future Development Trends 42
6 BULGARIA POWER MARKET 44
6.1 Electricity Transmission and Distribution 44
6.2 Electricity Consumption and Generation 46
6.3 Electricity Imports and Exports 50
6.4 Electricity Prices for Businesses and Households 51
6.5 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Targets 52
7 BULGARIA PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET 54
7.1 Why Invest in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Bulgaria? 54
7.2 Bulgaria Solar Resource Potential 55
7.3 Licensing Period Duration 56
7.4 Regional Substation Capacities for Solar PV Power Projects in Bulgaria 57
7.5 Overview of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market in Bulgaria 58
7.6 Market Structure Analysis 59
7.7 Investment Trends and Development Roadmap 60
7.8 Competitive Environment in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 61
7.9 Profiles of Key Players and Investors in Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Market 62
7.10 Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity and Revenue 64
7.11 Annual Installed Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Capacity 66
7.12 Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition 66
7.13 Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Bulgaria 67
7.14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power in Bulgaria 68
7.15 Key Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria Under Development 69
7.16 Mergers and Acquisitions 72
8 DRIVERS AND CONSTRAINTS OF THE PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BULGARIA. SWOT ANALYSIS 73
8.1 Market Drivers 73
8.2 Market Drivers Explained 73
8.3 Market Constraints 74
8.4 Market Constraints Explained 74
8.5 SWOT Analysis 75
9 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) MARKET IN BULGARIA 79
9.1 Financing Options of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Projects in Bulgaria 79
9.2 Financial Model and Analysis of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant investment in Bulgaria (IRR, WACC, Payback, NPV, Cash Flow, ETC.) 84
10 TECHNOLOGY ANALYSIS 89
10.1 Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Technology Overview 89
10.2 Technology Trends 90
11 EUROPEAN RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE 92
11.1 RES Regulations and EU Directives 92
11.1.1 Precedent EU regulations 92
11.1.2 Most recent EU renewable energy policy developments 93
12 BULGARIA RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK 94
12.1 Main Laws and Regulations 94
12.2 Support Schemes 95
12.3 Green Certificates Trading 95
12.4 Changes in Renewable Energy Law in Bulgaria in 2019 and 2020 96
12.5 Auction (Tender) Procedure for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria 99
12.6 Zoning, Planning and Construction-Related Authorizations 100
12.7 Environmental-Related Authorizations 100
12.7.1 Natura 2000 Network 100
12.7.2 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) 102
12.8 Energy Law Authorizations 102
12.8.1 Power Generation Licensing and Unlicensed Power Generation Below 5 MW 102
12.8.2 Grid Interconnection 103
12.8.3 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 104
12.8.4 Power Off-Take for Green Certificates 106
12.8.5 Power Off-Take under Auction (Tender) Scheme 107
12.8.6 Registers for Green Certificates (Guarantees of Origin) 107
12.9 Future Market Pricing Mechanisms 108
13 KEY STAKEHOLDERS AFFECTING PHOTOVOLTAIC (SOLAR PV) POWER MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN BULGARIA 109
13.1 Government Stakeholders 109
13.2 Non-Government Stakeholders 113
13.3 Electricity Generation, Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System Operators (DSOs) 114
14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 122
15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 124
16 REFERENCES 126
17 DISCLAIMER 128
APPENDIX I. SOLAR RESOURCE MAPS OF EUROPE AND BULGARIA 129

Map 1: Where is Bulgaria on the European Map 17
Map 2: Bulgaria Road Network 18
Map 3: Bulgaria Administrative Regions Map 20
Map 4: Bulgaria Electricity Grids Network 45
Map 5: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 55
MAP 7: Bulgaria Natura 2000 Areas Map 101
MAP 8: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 129
Map 9: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Horizontally Mounted Photovoltaic Modules in Bulgaria 130
Map 10: Solar Irradiation and Solar Electricity Potential for Optimally Inclined Photovoltaic Modules in Europe 131

Chart 1: Bulgaria Real GDP Growth for the Period 2014 – 2034 in % (including forecast) 22
Chart 2: Bulgaria GDP Growth Compared to EU-27 for the Period 2014 – 2034 in % (including forecast) 23
Chart 3: Corporate Tax Income in Selected Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) Countries 25
Chart 4: Physical Energy Flows Values in GW in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) in 2024 28
Chart 5: Breakdown of Electricity Production by Source Type in the EU-27 in 2024 (in %) 30
Chart 6: Average Base Load Electricity Price in Selected European Countries (€/MWh): 2014 – 2024; Renewable Market WatchTM 31
Chart 7: Forecast for RES Generation Capacity by Source Type in the EU to 2030 (in GW) 32
Chart 8: New Installed and Decommissioned Power Capacity by Source Type in the EU in 2024 (MW) 33
Chart 9: Age of Power Plants in Europe in 2024 34
Chart 10: Share of New Power Generation Capacities Added in the EU 27 in 2024 (MW) 35
Chart 11: Annual Installed Power Generating Capacity (MW) and Renewable Share (in %) 2014 – 2024 in the EU 36
Chart 12: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in CEE & SEE Countries 2014 – 2024, EPO PATSTAT 39
Chart 13: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 40
Chart 14: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in Millions USD) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 41
Chart 15: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants (in MW) in Central-East Europe (CEE) and South-East Europe (SEE) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 42
Chart 16: Bulgaria Power Market Structure 44
Chart 17: Share of RES electricity from Total Installed Power Capacity in Bulgaria in 2024 47
Chart 18: Bulgaria Total Annual Electricity Consumption (in TWh) 2013 ÷ 2023 48
Chart 19: Bulgaria Power Generation Capacity Breakdown by Source (Fuel) Type in 2024 49
Chart 20: Electricity Imports and Exports in Bulgaria 2014 – 2034 (in a million kWh) including forecast 51
Chart 21: Bulgaria Targets for Renewable Energy Sources by 2030 (in %) set by National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) 53
Chart 22: Chart: Number of Filled Patents for Solar PV Technologies in Bulgaria 2014 – 2025, EPO PATSTAT 61
Chart 23: Cumulative Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in MW) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 64
Chart 24: Cumulative Revenue of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in Millions EUR) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 65
Chart 25: Annual Installed Capacity of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plants in Bulgaria (in MW) 2014 – 2034, including forecast 66
Chart 26: Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power and Other Renewable Technologies in Bulgaria by 2030 (in €) 68
Chart 27: Bulgarian SEFF Structure 80
Chart 28: Cumulative Cash Flows and Break-Even Point of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 87
Chart 29: Photovoltaic (Solar PV) System Price Evolution (€/Wp) 2004 – 2024 90
Chart 30: Market Shares by Sales of the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) in Bulgaria in 2024 114

Table 1: Electricity Prices for Businesses and Households 52
Table 2: Support Schemes for RES Generation in the EU Countries and Bulgaria 54
Table 3: Market Prices for Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Bulgaria for 2025 – 2034 in Development, Ready to Build and Operational (Grid Connected) Condition (2025 Update) 67
Table 4: Key Cost Structure Elements of Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant in Bulgaria in 2025 68
Table 5: Database with Major Operational, Under Construction and Planned Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Projects in Bulgaria 70
Table 6: Key Financial Parameters of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 85
Table 7: Key Financial Viability Indicators of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria (IRR, NPV, Payback, Benefit-Cost) 85
Table 8: Project Costs and Savings (Income) Summary of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria 86
Table 9: Yearly Cash Flows of 50 MW Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Power Plant Investment in Bulgaria (Pre-tax, After-tax, Cumulative) 87
Table 10: Crystalline Module Price Trend in 2025 91